KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Continued dry conditions are expected through the period with only very limited moisture expected along a front Saturday/Sunday. This will push eastern Kansas to 20 days without wetting moisture, 30 days in the west. As a result, heavier fuels are continuing to slowly dry out and become more receptive. However, fine fuels will remain the primary driver of fire spread until late in the period. Overnight humidities are expected to remain moderate at the least and when combined with the short days, should keep daily burn periods rather short. Fuels will be most receptive on Wednesday through Friday when lower humidity will increase fire behavior each respective afternoon with at-to-near record high tempratures.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, December 22nd High pressure builds in to the east of the region overspreading light west/southwest winds across the state. A few gusts up to 20mph in the southeast, lighter elsewhere. Temperatures wil...

Fuels: Prolonged dry period continues across the state with as many as two weeks without wetting moisture in the east and 3-4 weeks in the west. With above normal temperatures expected this week, the fire environment is expected to respond towards higher fuel receptivity despite the shortest days of the year. Afternoon sun and periods of wind will increase fire behavior, making fire suppression more difficult. Behavior overall will remain limited to continuous fine fuels with heavier fuels and timber areas still holding over moisture and limiting fire growth. As the period continues, spread within these higher moisture areas may become possible and some large fire potential may be possible. This will be especially the case during higher winds. Overall fire behavior will continue to uptick until substantial moisture occurs which seems unlikely for the rest of the month.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, December 15th Elevated fire weather in sout...

Fuels: Periods of light precipitation, fog/clouds and higher moisture have kept fuels relatively moist. Only fine fuels are occasionally available during the afternoon when the sun comes out. Otherwise, receptivity to fire is relatively low and there are copious barriers to fire spread on the landscape. There is expected to be a gradual increase in overall drying as no significant moisture is in the forecast for the next week or so. This will likely begin to impact fuels conditions later in the period. However, shortest days of the year and a rather benign weather pattern will lead to below average fire activity regardless.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, December 8th Becoming mostly sunny with winds southerly and reaching the 20mph range in central/east Kansas. However, higher humidity near 50% will keep fire weather concerns low in this region. Further west, winds shift westerly but remain generally light. This will push drier air into west ...

Fuels: Continued precipitation has kept fuel moisture high across the state. In addition, areas with snow cover will have fuels unavailable to start the period. Snowfall has been fairly dry and thus, having little impact on standing dormant fuels and associated vertical alignment. As temperatures warm later in the week, snow pack should erode and fuels gradually become available in the afternoons by the weekend. Overall, heavier fuels will remain moist and resistant to fire spread through the period. Only fine fuels are expected to carry fire by the end of the period with numerous barriers to spread across the landscape, keeping any fire activity small and easy to control.     Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, December 1st Snow slowly tapers off from west to east today. Cold with no fire weather concerns.        Tuesday, December 2nd Much warmer and drier air pushes northward into the region. This will result in melting of ...

  Fuels: Widespread moisture continues to suppress any fire weather potential and keep fuel moistures above normal for late November. Widespread 0.7-2.5" of rainfall has occurred over the last several days. Additionally, high humidity continues to be prevalent with good overnight recoveries. Even "dry" days while observe moderated humidity conditions only down to the 30% range or so. As a result, only areas of fine fuels may see some brief availability on the drier days mid-week. Otherwise, greening wheat and moist timber regions will provide significant barriers to spread and keep any fires small. Spotting potential is low with spread rates minimal unless they align with peak winds on Tuesday.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, November 24th Low pressure continues to slowly move east out of the state. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with extensive overcast and even areas of fog. No fire weather concerns.   ...

Fuels: Dry period continues across the region with many locations within the state   up to at least 20 days without wetting moisture. As a result, fuels conditions continue to slowly hedge towards increased fire receptivity with upward trends in ERCs and KBDI. Additionally, 1000 hr fuels are also gradually decreasing. This is allowing the landscape to become more supportive of fire activity, especially in areas with continuous fine fuel loading. The potential for holdovers and rekindles are also increasing. However, timber areas continue to hold more moisture despite recent leaf fall and fire behavior is expected to be checked up. Therefore, potential for large fires remains low with quite a few barriers to spread on the landscape. With decreasing sunshine, any elevated fire weather period should remain fairly short. Lastly, an influx of moisture late week will likely bring a reversal in recent trends and decreasing fire potential into the weekend.      Sta...

Fuels: Additional widespread freezes have occurred and now the entire landscape of Kansas has transitioned to winter dormancy. As a result, fine fuel availability will be reliant upon day-to-day fire weather conditions. Additionally, leaf fall continues to progress and is nearing completion. While these leaves will take some time to fully dry out, there is now continuous fuel loading within timber areas which were previous barriers to fire spread. Drier conditions over the last week have begin to reduce soil moisture and coinciding fuels. This will result in gradually increasing fire behavior until moisture is observed. Humidity recoveries remain good which is limiting the overall burn window as the days get shorter. Where more prolonged dry conditions reside, especially in the southwest, fire behavior may be aggressive.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, November 10th High pressure will shift east with southerly flow starting to return for the w...