12/1/25 Forecast (12/1 - 12/8)

Fuels:

Continued precipitation has kept fuel moisture high across the state. In addition, areas with snow cover will have fuels unavailable to start the period. Snowfall has been fairly dry and thus, having little impact on standing dormant fuels and associated vertical alignment. As temperatures warm later in the week, snow pack should erode and fuels gradually become available in the afternoons by the weekend. Overall, heavier fuels will remain moist and resistant to fire spread through the period. Only fine fuels are expected to carry fire by the end of the period with numerous barriers to spread across the landscape, keeping any fire activity small and easy to control.  

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 1

 

Forecast:


Monday, December 1st

Snow slowly tapers off from west to east today. Cold with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, December 2nd

Much warmer and drier air pushes northward into the region. This will result in melting of the snow, especially west of US-81 and south of I-70 where afternoon humidity will drop to around 20%. Southerly winds, gusting to 25mph may develop very isolated elevated fire weather in southwest Kansas during the afternoon. Spatial coverage will be fairly limited in nature and short duration. 

 


 

Wednesday, December 3rd

Another cold front pushes south across the state early in the morning. This will result in gusty northerly winds up to 25mph. Colder air will push into the region with afternoon maximums struggling to get into the 30s. Increased humidity post-frontal will keep fire conditions minimal. Snowfall is possible across southwest and south-central Kansas late afternoon and evening.

 

 

   

   

Thursday, December 4th

Temperatures warm only a few degrees from Wednesday. Light winds shift southerly but remain light. This will push some drier air into eastern Kansas with afternoon minimums in the 30% range. Otherwise, higher humidity will reside across the remainder of the area. 

 

 


Friday, December 5th

Downsloping west/northwest winds will increase temperatures to near the 40F mark during the afternoon. A few gusts to 30mph are possible in the afternoon. This will also result in drier air, with afternoon minimum RH in the 30% range pushing into northwest Kansas. Still, this will be below elevated fire weather conditions and result in melting snow statewide. 

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Saturday, December 6th

Continued warming with temperatures approaching the 50F mark for all but the northeast. Winds will shift more southwesterly with a few gusts to 25mph. Drier air will push into far southwest Kansas with minimum RH near 20% in the afternoon along the OK border. This may result in briefly elevated fire weather along the border. Winds shift northerly overnight with another potent cold front.


 

Sunday, December 7th

Light winds and much cooler. High humidity with some isolated rain/snow showers for southern Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

  

Monday, December 8th

Light northwest winds will result in some downsloping for western Kansas. This will increase temperatures compared to Sunday in this region. Otherwise, cool temperatures persist for central/east Kansas with higher humidity. No fire weather concerns.  

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Chip (12/1/25)

Next forecast: 12/8/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

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