3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Fuels: 

Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-central Kansas mid-week. However, the benefits will be limited in nature as warm/dry conditions are expected to quickly return late week.  

 

Weekly Statewide Preparedness Level:  3-4

 

 

Growing Season Index (0, completely dormant to 100, completely green):

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 17th

Critical fire weather is expected along the OK border and in eastern Kansas. Elevated fire weather for the remainder of the state (northwest/north-central). 

A return flow of strong southerly flow will develop across the region. This will increase afternoon temperatures and lower humidity more so than previous days. Lowest RH is expected in the west, in the single digits and gradually increase with eastward extend to 30% along the MO border. Gusty southwest winds will be strongest along the OK border and extend northeast into the Flint Hills. Elsewhere lighter winds will result in more moderated fire weather. Overnight, gusty winds will expand across most of the state with poor humidity recovery for all but along the MO border. This could potentially extend the burn period well into the night. 

 

 

Tuesday, March 18th

Critical to near extreme fire weather is expected for south of a Wallace to Waubansee Co line and west of Waubansee to Cowley Co line.

A Southern Great Plains Outbreak setup will again develop with a strengthening low pressure system. This system will reside further west and overspread at least critical fire weather for most of southwest and south-central Kansas during the afternoon. With much warmer, near record temperatures, afternoon humidity is expected down to the single digits, with slight increase with eastward extend. This will combine with southwest winds (becoming more westerly in the late afternoon) gusting to 40mph, (increasing to 55mph with westerly shift). Potent conditions will continue overnight with winds shifting northwest with a cold front into Wednesday. Heavy snow will develop behind this front with potential blizzard conditions in North Central Kansas. 

 

 Wednesday, March 19th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas. 

Extreme winds are expected for most of the day with northwest gusts exceeding 50-55mph statewide. This will continue blizzard conditions in North Central Kansas. Further west, with the system beginning to exit and no precipitation, elevated fire weather is possible as humidity falls to 25% despite much cooler weather. Winds will begin to diminish from west to east after sunset. 

 

 

Thursday, March 20th

Critical fire weather for western Kansas where there is no snow cover. 

Southerly flow returns with temperatures returning back to normal everywhere except locations with snow cover. These winds will gust up to 35mph for western Kansas, west of the snow. With humidity dropping to near 10-15% in snow-free locations statewide, the combination of dry/windy will cover most of western Kansas with elevated afternoon fire weather. Winds will increase to gusts of near 45mph out of the south/southwest into the overnight with poor humidity recovery.

 

Friday, March 21st

Elevated fire weather for most of Kansas.

A cold front will push into the state early morning and slowly advance eastward. Ahead of this front, gusty southwest winds will result in elevated fire weather despite some cloud cover and near-normal temperatures. Strong northwest winds are expected post-frontal with a even drier air mass. This will likely develop at least elevated, potentially critical fire weather for western Kansas post-frontal.

 

Saturday, March 22nd

Active weather pattern continues as winds again shift southerly. Some model discrepancy exists on the strength of the southerly flow following the previous storms evolution. However, dry and warming conditions are expected statewide. There could potentially be at least elevated fire weather developing in the southwest but confidence at the moment is low. 

 

Sunday, March 23rd

Elevated fire weather for west/central Kansas. 

Another cold front pushes across the state during the day. Temperatures are expected to only be a few degrees cooler but once again, a dry air mass pushes into the region. Afternoon humidity down to the low teens is likely. Combined with breezy northwest winds post-frontal, this will likely develop elevated fire weather for much of the state.  

 

Monday, March 24th

Winds moderate some with light westerly flow expected across the region. Temperatures will remain around normal with still very dry air in place. The light winds will limit fire weather concerns for Monday. 

 

Chip (3/17/25)

Next update 3/20/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.