3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

 Fuels:

With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best with continued dry. As a result, the potential for extreme fire continues to increase, possibly into April until wetting moisture is received.

 

Weekly Statewide PL: ~3

 

 

Forecast:

Thursday, March 13th

Critical fire weather expected  west of US-283 during the afternoon. 

Southerly return flow will develop with wind gusts reaching the 40mph range during the afternoon. This will overlap minimum humidity in the 10-15% range for the western third of the state. Further east, afternoon humidity and wind will be more moderated. As a low pressure system develops across the region overnight, continued breezy southerly winds and poor RH is expected to continue into early Friday morning. 

Graphic from: https://mesonet.ksu.edu/fire/danger

 

Friday, March 14th

Extreme fire weather is expected from Harper Co northeast to Geary Co and east/southeastward to the MO/OK state line. 

A strong storm system that aligns with previous historic fire outbreaks will develop during the day and move east. Very strong south/southwest flow will develop across south-central and eastern Kansas. Wind gusts up to potentially 70mph are possible in this region with highest confidence in far southeast Kansas along the OK border. Afternoon humidity could drop as low as the single digits, resulting in extreme fire weather. There is some low potential for a few thunderstorms in eastern Kansas with afternoon dry lightning potential, however, confidence is low in coverage/extent. Further west, winds will shift northerly with a strong cold front that'll move east slowly during the day, and continue into the overnight. The extreme risk area will see a 90 degree wind shift overnight. Humidity will increase post-frontal into the 40% range into Saturday. 

 

Saturday, March 15th

Elevated fire weather expected statewide, near-critical in northeast Kansas. 

Gusty north/northwest post-frontal flow will result in wind gusts up to 45mph during the afternoon. Statewide, afternoon humidity is expected around the 20mph range despite cooler conditions. Winds should lessen from west to east through the day with slightly better recovery overnight. 

Sunday, March 16th

Some lingering northwest winds are expected in northeast Kansas, becoming light in the afternoon. Central Kansas will observe light and variable winds while the west will see a shift to southerly. Overall, winds will be light enough for minimal fire weather concerns. Despite this, temperatures will begin to warm again and persistent low humidity around the 20% range statewide. Overnight recoveries will be moderate at best into Monday as the southerly wind gradually increases across the region. 

 

 

 

Monday, March 17th

Critical fire weather expected for most of the state. 

Southerly flow strengthens again in advance of the next storm system. Gusts up to 40mph are possible, especially across western Kansas. With much warmer temperatures, afternoon humidity will drop into the 15-20% range statewide. This should result in critical fire weather most likely for western Kansas, potentially spreading east through the day. Poor overnight recovery with persistent wind expected into Tuesday.  

 

 

Tuesday, March 18th

Critical fire weather expected for all but far eastern Kansas. Some potential for extreme fire weather for southwest and south-central Kansas. 

Some uncertainty remains of when the next system will develop and move east across the state. Currently, the thought is this will be another day of significant wind shifting through the day with low humidity across the state. The potential exists for another outbreak scenario focusing on the southwest/south-central Kansas with a cold front crossing the region in the evening. Regardless, at least critical fire weather is expected for much of the state. Wind gusts potentially up to 55-60mph are possible with afternoon minimum RH down to the single digits for southwest-central Kansas. Some precipitation, possibly snow is possible post-frontal into Wednesday. 

 

 

 

Wednesday, March 16th

The timing of Tuesday's system could potentially be as late as Wednesday morning. Regardless, gusty north/northwest winds, potentially up to 30-40mph will exist post-frontal with some lingering light snow. Behind the snow, much drier air will push in and result in afternoon humidity in the 20% range where the sun persists. This could develop elevated fire weather, especially for the southern half of the state. 

Thursday, March 17th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas. 

Southerly flow returns as yet another storm system begins to approach the region. Moisture will again be limited with warming temperatures, yielding afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range. Combined with gusty winds again, elevated fire weather is possible, especially for southwest/central Kansas. 

Chip (3/13/25)

Next update 3/17/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 30mph Gusting, greater than 50mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.