3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

 Fuels:

Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread. 

 

Weekly Statewide PL: ~3

Onset GSI:

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 10th

Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward to Republic Co and east/southward to the MO and OK line. 

Gusty southwest winds will develop over much of the state with afternoon gusts reaching the 35mph range, especially in northeast Kansas. Northwest Kansas will observe lighter winds, however, lowest humidity will reside there with afternoon minimums in the single digits. In the critical fire weather area, afternoon RH is expected in the mid-to-low teens during the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy but RH should recovery after 2200 for all but southwest Kansas. There, elevated to critical fire weather could potentially exist into early Tuesday. A weak front will push southward early Tuesday with a wind shift to the north around daybreak for many. 

Tuesday, March 11th

Breezy north/northeast winds for most of the state with some afternoon gusts to 20mph. A weak low pressure in southern Kansas will develop along the stalled front. This will result in more erratic wind direction into the afternoon. Widespread RH statewide will be in the 20% range, lowest in western Kansas. With a cooler air mass, improved RH and winds below concern level, fire weather concerns are mitigated outside isolated elevated levels, mostly in west Kansas. 

 

 

Wednesday, March 12th

 Another weak system slides south of Kansas. This will overspread clouds for much of the state during the burn period. Afternoon RH will drop into the mid-20% range for all but far eastern Kansas. Clouds should limit the overall mixing/wind potential and limit fire weather concerns. Overnight recovery will be limited along the CO border. 

Thursday, March 13th

Critical fire weather expected for most of the state except the MO border. 

 Strong southerly flow returns to the Plains with an approaching potent storm system. Wind gusts out of the south/southwest could reach as high as 40mph during the afternoon. Combined with much warmer temperatures and afternoon humidity around 10-15%, critical fire weather is expected. Conditions west of US-183 will continue after dark. 

 

 

Friday, March 14th

 Critical to extreme fire weather for Morton Co eastward to Saline Co and north to Marshall Co and east/southward. 

Another significant storm will move rapidly to the northeast. This will expand extreme winds over the state with winds gusting to 55-60mph in the afternoon and through the overnight. A corridor of dry air will move from southwest to northeast/east Kansas during the afternoon. This will result in critical to extreme fire weather that coincides with a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak scenario with strongest wind/RH overlap over southcentral and southeast Kansas. A cold front will switch these southwest winds to northeast during the day. Strong northwest winds will persist overnight with moderate recovery in humidity into Saturday. Any moisture with this system will be limited to the far northwest part of the state.

Saturday, March 15th

Elevated to near critical fire weather statewide. 

Despite a much colder air mass, gusty northwest winds will continue, diminishing by sunset. Some gusts upward to 45mph are possible. Dry air will drop afternoon humidity into the mid-20% range across the region and develop near-critical fire weather during the afternoon hours. 

Sunday, March 16th

 Elevated fire weather expected for the western 1/3rd of the state. 

Southerly flow returns as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures will climb compared to Saturday with afternoon humidity dropping into the middle teens for much of the state. Winds will gust up to 25mph for the western third of the state and result in elevated fire weather in the afternoon. Winds will persist into the overnight with moderate/poor recovery expected over the western portion of the state. A weak cold front will push into Kansas early Monday morning. 

 

 

Monday, March 17th

Elevated fire weather for southeast Kansas.

Cold front will continue slowly progressing across the region during the day. Little temperature change is expected with warm/dry conditions both sides of the front. Afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range expected both sides of the front as well. Northwest winds post frontal will only gust to about 20mph. However, winds will be stronger ahead of the front with southwest winds gusting to 30mph. This will likely result in elevated fire weather conditions for southeastern Kansas.    

Chip (3/10/25)

Next update 3/13/25

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.