KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Moisture has occurred over the last week for a good portion of the state. Still, amounts were fairly low for the west/central outside of isolated areas. While the higher humidity has moderated conditions, a more prolonged and impactful event is needed to support slowing fire season in the central and west. As a result, fuels will be subject to rapid drying this week with a persistent dryline setup daily. While there has been some greenup, observations and GSI support a fire landscape capable of large fires. Dormant fuels will be capable of higher end fire behavior, especially in the areas that missed precipitation. A  fuels advisory remains in place for all of western and much of central Kansas. Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast:     Monday, April 13th Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas from Greeley Co, east to Barton Co, south to Barber, and southwestward.  After poor humidity recovery last night, much of the western half of the s...

Fuels: Moderation in the fire environment has occurred with recent precipitation in the east. This has not only improved fuel moisture, it also increased green-up greatly resulting in more barriers to fire spread. Further west, for central/west Kansas, a fuels advisory remains in place with most locations anywhere from 50-80+ days without wetting moisture. As a result, very little, if any green-up has occurred and fuels remain critically dry. Extreme fire behavior is possible in these regions until wetting moisture is received, even under benign conditions. Rapid rates of spread will occur with winds increased through mid-week which may result in increased spotting potential along with significant resistance to suppression. Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, April 6th Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas. Cold front stalls just south of I-70 across the state. Ahead of the cold front, winds will be southerly with above normal temperatures and dry air in ...

Fuels: Recent increases in overnight humidity recovery and some areas of moisture have marginally improved fuels in some locations, especially east. However, more prolonged dry conditions are taking hold with ERCs remaining consistent and 1000 hr fuels drying further. Burn periods have been slightly shorter and fine fuels needing some additional drying for extreme behavior. Timber areas are remaining dry and will not be an effective barrier to spread. As moisture this period begins to increase in the east, some improvements in the fire landscape are expected. This will also spur greenup to increase again after being slowed by the freeze several weeks ago. Further west, the driest areas in the state, some without wetting moisture for three months, will be favored to remain dry. As a result, extreme fire growth and large fire potential will remain on the landscape. Thus a fuels advisory remains in place.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     NOTE: FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS ARE NOT...

Fuels: With the intense heat last week and very dry conditions, ERCs increased greatly yielding percentiles in the 75-90th range, highest in the west. As a result of this increased dryness, fuel receptivity is extreme and behavior is greatly increased. Suppression difficulty will be high until substantial moisture arrives, even during benign conditions. Overnight recoveries are expected to be slightly higher this week with not quite as low of afternoon humidity. This should marginally improve the landscape and aid in limiting critical burn windows. However, widespread moisture is not in the forecast until perhaps next week. Thus, expect continued extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread regardless of weather conditions. Lastly, green-up is starting to increase again in the wake of last week's freeze. Values are still below 50%  however, and areas of greening cool season vegetation will not likely be an effective barrier to spread. Especially if there is freeze burn/kill mixe...

Fuels: Continued dry conditions are expected through the period. When combined with near record high temperatures and only moderate to poor overnight recovery, rapid drying of the fuels landscape is expected this week. ERCs are anticipated to increase substantially to statewide averages exceeding 70th percentile. While fine fuels will likely remain dry and able to carry fire through much of the period, heavier fuels and regions of timber will become much more conducive to fire as well. This will result in a landscape with minimal barriers to fire spread with higher intensity and overall behavior - even under benign weather conditions. With heavies fully consuming, the potential for holdovers and rekindles are increased and fire suppression will be more challenging. Weather will become increasingly potent by the weekend with an increase in winds with growing potential of large fires as conditions align until more widespread wetting rains develop. Moisture is not expected through the per...

Fuels: Recent precipitation focused primarily on the eastern part of the state with a few isolated areas in central seeing measurable rainfall. Much of the west and portions of central are between 20-60 days without wetting rainfall and thus, longer duration dryness would favor increased difficulty of suppression and more aggressive fire potential. With these same areas mostly favored to remain dry through the week, ERC %-tiles are forecasted to increase from around the 50th %-tile to upwards of the 75th %-tile. When combined with occasional breezy winds, initial attack is favored with large fire remaining limited until a larger wind event does occur. Further east, while grasses/fines will be available some afternoons during the forecast period, periods of good humidity recovery and some rainfall should limit large fire concerns and favor prescribed burning. Heavier fuels, timber regions and areas of increased green-up will provide numerous barriers to fire spread.  Statewide Prepa...