KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Recent moisture, humidity and cloud cover have improved the fuel landscape for central and eastern Kansas the last day or so. Further west, the western 1/3 of the state remains very dry with fuels available. This will be the focus through the period as ERCs will reside around the 75th percentile and potentially increase by Friday. Result will be a fire environment capable of carrying fire efficiently with little resistance to spread. The only caveat to large fire activity in this region will be potency of overnight humidity recovery, precipitation (if any) that may occur and overall burn period conditions. Additionally, barriers to spread such as timber areas will provide little buffer with fire carrying through them at higher than normal rates of spread with complete consumption.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, March 2nd High humidity and overcast skies expected for most of the state. Periods of drizzle also possible. The one exception is far ...

  Fuels: Very light snow over the weekend brought enough timely moisture to portions of west/central Kansas to keep surface fuels moist. With mostly dry conditions outside of small chances of rain/snow weighted towards east Kansas overnight into Thursday and again on Sunday, overall drying is anticipated this week - especially when combined with a return of warmer than normal temperatures. Fine fuels will cure out daily with lower afternoon humidity but heavier fuels remain fairly moist. As a result, areas such as timber and heavy dense fuel loading will not fully consume and inhibit fire spread. This will provide barriers on the landscape and limit overall fire growth, even during afternoon burn periods. An exception to this may be along the OK border where recent moisture missed and thus, heavier 100 and 1000 hour fuels are slightly drier.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, February 23th Elevated fire weather along the OK border from Morton to Bar...

Fuels: Precipitation over the weekend has created a complex fire environment. Spotty heavier rains in western Kansas, especially in the northwest have provided an end to ~80 days without wetting moisture. Other areas such as southwest Kansas and stretching northeastward into Ellis/Trego/Russell Co did not measure significant moisture in this event. Fuels in these regions will reach critical levels with ERCs hitting the 80th %-tile and BIs pushing the 99th %-tile. This is where most extreme fire behavior is possible through the period. However, areas out side of this region in central and northwest Kansas will observe rapid drying of fuels as well. While not forecasted to reach critical levels, fine fuels will become conducive to carry fire, especially into Wed/Thurs. Decreased overnight humidity recovery will expand burn periods, especially on Mon through Thurs and fire behavior may only slightly moderate.   Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, Februar...

Fuels: Continued warmer than normal condition temperatures are pushing fuels toward drier conditions with increases in drought, 1000 hour fuels and KBDI over the last few days. Additionally, ERC percentiles continue to slowly climb across the state, bringing the environment in better alignment with cured (and heavy loading) of fine fuels. The biggest caveat of the forecast will be the impact of weekend moisture. Currently, improvements are expected only briefly expected in fine fuels with some lingering moisture in timber/shaded regions. Otherwise, the landscape (especially in southwest Kansas were less moisture falls and northwest Kansas where more prolonged drought is developing) will be conducive to extreme fire behavior when fire weather conditions align next week. With rapid drying and poor humidity recovery overnights, fuels will become increasingly volatile throught he period, peaking by Thursday. Anticipated extended burn periods and fires to be more resistant to suppression as...

Fuels: Drying trend continues with longer term fuels beginning to cure as we become further distanced from the recent snow/precipitation events. As a result, the fire environment is becoming more supportive of large fire activity statewide. BIs are expected to peak this period on Monday with values exceeding the 90th percentile in southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, ERCs are trending upwards, reaching the 50th percentile for western Kansas. The western 1/3rd of the state will see less barrier to spread in tree lines, etc and extreme fire behavior in areas with heavier fuel loading than normal. While the landscape isn't as aligned for central/east Kansas with lower ERCs, fine fuels will be the primary carrier to fire spread with timber areas still being unsupportive of carrying fire effectively. Some precipitation is possible Friday/Saturday with focus in the southeast. Depending on coverage/amount, this may check up the environment some before the next potential fire weather event early n...

Fuels: Lingering snow pack/melt and cooler than normal conditions have positively modified fuels across the region this week. The only exception is far west/northwest Kansas that received little moisture and is now over 70 days without wetting moisture. This area will be the focus for enhanced drying associated with warmer than normal temperatures and downslope conditions the next week. Fine and heavy fuels will be conducive to fire spread and there are few barriers to spread on the landscape. With eastward extent, while fine fuels will become more available with snow melt, timber areas and heavier fuels will hold moisture until a more prolonged dry spell becomes established. This will allow more barriers to spread and high suppression success.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, February 2nd Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 30mph expected across the snow free regions of western Kansas. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 50s, with humidity fa...