KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Much needed moisture occurred across most of the northwest and west-central Kansas last week. This moisture has helped to improve fuels status and begin to initiate greenup. Areas that missed the moisture, especially the southwest and south-central, continue to observe little to no greening and fuels still at/above the 75th percentile. These areas will be most favored for any large fire activity. Elsewhere, greenup has resulted in a mosaic of scattered conducive fuel on the landscape. With warmer than normal temperatures forecasted this week, combined with low humidity and breezy winds, drying is likely to stress even green areas. As a result,the potential for initial attack will increase for most of the state outside the southwest/central, but large fire potential is relatively low.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Weekly Synopsis Mon, May 11 Tue, May 12 Wed, May 13 Thu, May 14 Fri, May 15 Sat, May 16 Sun, May 17 Mon, May 18 Highest Fire Wx Concern Ele...

Fuels: Some much needed moisture fell across the western third of Kansas over the last week with more expected this week. This will continue to initiate green-up and moderate fuels conditions in the region. ERCs are projected in the west to remain at to slightly below the 50th percentile with reduced fire activity as a result. This will increase suppression success and lower spread rates and spotting potential, along with a more discontinuous fire landscape. Further east, green-up has become well established and has greatly reduced fire activity. However, drying is ongoing with limited moisture and little widespread precipitation forecasted. This will push ERCs towards the 50th percentile and behavior will be increased in areas where dormant fuels remain dominant. Otherwise, fire landscape will struggle to carry fire with limited to no large fire potential. .  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast:   Monday, May 4th A weak low pressure system will develop d...

Fuels: Much of central and eastern Kansas continued to receive episodes of light to moderate rainfall. This has reduced the overall fire potential and greatly improved ERCs and 1000hr fuel moistures. While drying is expected to occur this week, greenup will mitigate any fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, especially the southwest, along the CO border and south-central Kansas, some areas still haven't received wetting moisture for 70+ days. These areas continue to see potential for large fire spread until precipitation occurs with dormant vegetation. ERCs, while improved with higher humidity values, still reside up to the 70th percentile. Fire behavior in these areas, especially in dormant grasses will still have the potential for extreme conditions under critical fire weather. However, improvement is expected by mid-week in this area with higher moisture and some precipitation potential.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast:     Monday, April 27th Low press...

Fuels: Fuels remain mostly unchanged from last week. Eastern portion of the state continued to see some areas of isolated heavy rains. Further west, a  fuels advisory remains in place and the region has gone mostly precipitation-free with many locations approaching 70 days without wetting moisture. For most of central and western Kansas, wheat continues to fail and with another freeze over the weekend, additional stress has been placed on the area's only resistant barrier to spread. Thus, even wheat should not be considered an adequate place to stop wildfires. Heavy fuels also remain extremely dry and are consuming completely. As a result, the landscape is conducive to large fire activity when weather conditions align. Expect extreme fire behavior, increased spotting, significant mop up and high rekindle potential until adequate moisture is received.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast:     Monday, April 20th Critical fire weather for west and cen...

Fuels: Moisture has occurred over the last week for a good portion of the state. Still, amounts were fairly low for the west/central outside of isolated areas. While the higher humidity has moderated conditions, a more prolonged and impactful event is needed to support slowing fire season in the central and west. As a result, fuels will be subject to rapid drying this week with a persistent dryline setup daily. While there has been some greenup, observations and GSI support a fire landscape capable of large fires. Dormant fuels will be capable of higher end fire behavior, especially in the areas that missed precipitation. A  fuels advisory remains in place for all of western and much of central Kansas. Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast:     Monday, April 13th Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas from Greeley Co, east to Barton Co, south to Barber, and southwestward.  After poor humidity recovery last night, much of the western half of the s...