KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: With the intense heat last week and very dry conditions, ERCs increased greatly yielding percentiles in the 75-90th range, highest in the west. As a result of this increased dryness, fuel receptivity is extreme and behavior is greatly increased. Suppression difficulty will be high until substantial moisture arrives, even during benign conditions. Overnight recoveries are expected to be slightly higher this week with not quite as low of afternoon humidity. This should marginally improve the landscape and aid in limiting critical burn windows. However, widespread moisture is not in the forecast until perhaps next week. Thus, expect continued extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread regardless of weather conditions. Lastly, green-up is starting to increase again in the wake of last week's freeze. Values are still below 50%  however, and areas of greening cool season vegetation will not likely be an effective barrier to spread. Especially if there is freeze burn/kill mixe...

Fuels: Continued dry conditions are expected through the period. When combined with near record high temperatures and only moderate to poor overnight recovery, rapid drying of the fuels landscape is expected this week. ERCs are anticipated to increase substantially to statewide averages exceeding 70th percentile. While fine fuels will likely remain dry and able to carry fire through much of the period, heavier fuels and regions of timber will become much more conducive to fire as well. This will result in a landscape with minimal barriers to fire spread with higher intensity and overall behavior - even under benign weather conditions. With heavies fully consuming, the potential for holdovers and rekindles are increased and fire suppression will be more challenging. Weather will become increasingly potent by the weekend with an increase in winds with growing potential of large fires as conditions align until more widespread wetting rains develop. Moisture is not expected through the per...

Fuels: Recent precipitation focused primarily on the eastern part of the state with a few isolated areas in central seeing measurable rainfall. Much of the west and portions of central are between 20-60 days without wetting rainfall and thus, longer duration dryness would favor increased difficulty of suppression and more aggressive fire potential. With these same areas mostly favored to remain dry through the week, ERC %-tiles are forecasted to increase from around the 50th %-tile to upwards of the 75th %-tile. When combined with occasional breezy winds, initial attack is favored with large fire remaining limited until a larger wind event does occur. Further east, while grasses/fines will be available some afternoons during the forecast period, periods of good humidity recovery and some rainfall should limit large fire concerns and favor prescribed burning. Heavier fuels, timber regions and areas of increased green-up will provide numerous barriers to fire spread.  Statewide Prepa...

Fuels: Recent moisture, humidity and cloud cover have improved the fuel landscape for central and eastern Kansas the last day or so. Further west, the western 1/3 of the state remains very dry with fuels available. This will be the focus through the period as ERCs will reside around the 75th percentile and potentially increase by Friday. Result will be a fire environment capable of carrying fire efficiently with little resistance to spread. The only caveat to large fire activity in this region will be potency of overnight humidity recovery, precipitation (if any) that may occur and overall burn period conditions. Additionally, barriers to spread such as timber areas will provide little buffer with fire carrying through them at higher than normal rates of spread with complete consumption.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, March 2nd High humidity and overcast skies expected for most of the state. Periods of drizzle also possible. The one exception is far ...

  Fuels: Very light snow over the weekend brought enough timely moisture to portions of west/central Kansas to keep surface fuels moist. With mostly dry conditions outside of small chances of rain/snow weighted towards east Kansas overnight into Thursday and again on Sunday, overall drying is anticipated this week - especially when combined with a return of warmer than normal temperatures. Fine fuels will cure out daily with lower afternoon humidity but heavier fuels remain fairly moist. As a result, areas such as timber and heavy dense fuel loading will not fully consume and inhibit fire spread. This will provide barriers on the landscape and limit overall fire growth, even during afternoon burn periods. An exception to this may be along the OK border where recent moisture missed and thus, heavier 100 and 1000 hour fuels are slightly drier.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, February 23th Elevated fire weather along the OK border from Morton to Bar...

Fuels: Precipitation over the weekend has created a complex fire environment. Spotty heavier rains in western Kansas, especially in the northwest have provided an end to ~80 days without wetting moisture. Other areas such as southwest Kansas and stretching northeastward into Ellis/Trego/Russell Co did not measure significant moisture in this event. Fuels in these regions will reach critical levels with ERCs hitting the 80th %-tile and BIs pushing the 99th %-tile. This is where most extreme fire behavior is possible through the period. However, areas out side of this region in central and northwest Kansas will observe rapid drying of fuels as well. While not forecasted to reach critical levels, fine fuels will become conducive to carry fire, especially into Wed/Thurs. Decreased overnight humidity recovery will expand burn periods, especially on Mon through Thurs and fire behavior may only slightly moderate.   Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, Februar...