Posts

2/13/26 Forecast (2/13 - 2/20)

Image
Fuels: Continued warmer than normal condition temperatures are pushing fuels toward drier conditions with increases in drought, 1000 hour fuels and KBDI over the last few days. Additionally, ERC percentiles continue to slowly climb across the state, bringing the environment in better alignment with cured (and heavy loading) of fine fuels. The biggest caveat of the forecast will be the impact of weekend moisture. Currently, improvements are expected only briefly expected in fine fuels with some lingering moisture in timber/shaded regions. Otherwise, the landscape (especially in southwest Kansas were less moisture falls and northwest Kansas where more prolonged drought is developing) will be conducive to extreme fire behavior when fire weather conditions align next week. With rapid drying and poor humidity recovery overnights, fuels will become increasingly volatile throught he period, peaking by Thursday. Anticipated extended burn periods and fires to be more resistant to suppression as...
Post a Comment
Read more

2/9/26 Forecast (2/9 - 2/16)

Image
Fuels: Drying trend continues with longer term fuels beginning to cure as we become further distanced from the recent snow/precipitation events. As a result, the fire environment is becoming more supportive of large fire activity statewide. BIs are expected to peak this period on Monday with values exceeding the 90th percentile in southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, ERCs are trending upwards, reaching the 50th percentile for western Kansas. The western 1/3rd of the state will see less barrier to spread in tree lines, etc and extreme fire behavior in areas with heavier fuel loading than normal. While the landscape isn't as aligned for central/east Kansas with lower ERCs, fine fuels will be the primary carrier to fire spread with timber areas still being unsupportive of carrying fire effectively. Some precipitation is possible Friday/Saturday with focus in the southeast. Depending on coverage/amount, this may check up the environment some before the next potential fire weather event early n...
Post a Comment
Read more

2/2/26 Forecast (2/2 - 2/9)

Image
Fuels: Lingering snow pack/melt and cooler than normal conditions have positively modified fuels across the region this week. The only exception is far west/northwest Kansas that received little moisture and is now over 70 days without wetting moisture. This area will be the focus for enhanced drying associated with warmer than normal temperatures and downslope conditions the next week. Fine and heavy fuels will be conducive to fire spread and there are few barriers to spread on the landscape. With eastward extent, while fine fuels will become more available with snow melt, timber areas and heavier fuels will hold moisture until a more prolonged dry spell becomes established. This will allow more barriers to spread and high suppression success.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, February 2nd Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 30mph expected across the snow free regions of western Kansas. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 50s, with humidity fa...
Post a Comment
Read more

1/26/26 Forecast (1/26 - 2/2)

Image
Fuels: To start the week, snow cover exists across all of the state. Snow will gradually begin melting from northwest to southeast through the period. The amount that melts will be mostly limited to the far west and north. These areas may see some periodic fuels availability in fine fuels and some potential for fire activity when atmospheric conditions exist. However, overall fire behavior is expected to limited during this period. Heavier, 1000 hr fuels still remain fairly dry and this is a trend that will result in hold-over heat and has potential impact on timber areas carrying fire when conditions begin to dry out.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, January 26th Winds turn southwest and increase with gusts to 25mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the 20s as a result. Lingering snow will keep humidity up and no fire weather concerns.        Tuesday, January 27th Weak cold front crosses the region in the early morni...
Post a Comment
Read more

1/20/26 Forecast (1/20 - 1/26)

Image
Fuels: Despite cooler conditions recently, very dry air is slowly starting to dry out 1000 hour fuels. As a result, the landscape is gradually becoming more conducive to fire that will burn more intensely and hold heat in heavier fuels that were once barriers. Snow cover in the southwest (and across much of the state by late in the period) will reverse this trend slightly with increased barriers to fire spread and mitigate overall fire potential in the region. Before this weekend's snow however, burn periods will be extended due to only moderate humidity recovery and breezy winds associated with frontal passages. The nature of the expected snow should be powdery and light. This will likely not have a significant impact on fuels alignment. Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Tuesday, January 20th Elevated fire weather for central and eastern Kansas.    Breezy southwest winds, up to 30mph are expected for all but the far northwest. This will overlap a dry air m...
Post a Comment
Read more

1/12/25 Forecast (1/12 - 1/19)

Image
Fuels: Widespread moisture occurred for all but northwest Kansas. For the most part, improvements in the fuels landscape were short-lived due to much drier air that moved in after the event. Still, soil moisture at the surface will keep matted grass and timber litter moist, acting more like a heavier fuel model in areas which received precipitation. Additionally, any lingering snow in the southwest will keep temperatures slightly cooler and reduce receptivity to fire early in the week. Through the period, widespread dry, warm and breezy conditions will begin to result in rapid drying. This will slowly bring heavier fuels into better alignment with the already conducive fine fuels. As a result, fire behavior will increase on days with heightened wind and fire weather. Barriers to spread will become less effective along with suppression success, especially where fuel loads are significant. Biggest area of large fire concern is the northwestern portion of the state that has now exceeded 5...
Post a Comment
Read more

1/5/25 Forecast (1/5 - 1/12)

Image
Fuels: High moisture airmasses have kept the fire environment in check over the past week despite continued lack of precipitation. As a result, indices reflect only marginally drying of the landscape with moderated ERCs for central/east Kansas. Further west, longer term dryness of 40+ days without wetting rains have allowed ERC to reach the 75th+ percentile and suggest a landscape more receptive to fire spread. Combined with a period of 48 hours of drying with a downslope wind event early this week, fire behavior during the afternoon burn period may approach extreme conditions and resist suppression - especially considering the fuel load in the southwest. Conditions will moderate mid-week before drier conditions return late week and into the weekend, increasing fire weather once again. Fire behavior is expected to continually increase through the period for all but the far southeast which may receive some light moisture late week.  Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forec...
Post a Comment
Read more