KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Lingering snow pack/melt and cooler than normal conditions have positively modified fuels across the region this week. The only exception is far west/northwest Kansas that received little moisture and is now over 70 days without wetting moisture. This area will be the focus for enhanced drying associated with warmer than normal temperatures and downslope conditions the next week. Fine and heavy fuels will be conducive to fire spread and there are few barriers to spread on the landscape. With eastward extent, while fine fuels will become more available with snow melt, timber areas and heavier fuels will hold moisture until a more prolonged dry spell becomes established. This will allow more barriers to spread and high suppression success.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, February 2nd Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 30mph expected across the snow free regions of western Kansas. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 50s, with humidity fa...

Fuels: To start the week, snow cover exists across all of the state. Snow will gradually begin melting from northwest to southeast through the period. The amount that melts will be mostly limited to the far west and north. These areas may see some periodic fuels availability in fine fuels and some potential for fire activity when atmospheric conditions exist. However, overall fire behavior is expected to limited during this period. Heavier, 1000 hr fuels still remain fairly dry and this is a trend that will result in hold-over heat and has potential impact on timber areas carrying fire when conditions begin to dry out.  Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Monday, January 26th Winds turn southwest and increase with gusts to 25mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the 20s as a result. Lingering snow will keep humidity up and no fire weather concerns.        Tuesday, January 27th Weak cold front crosses the region in the early morni...

Fuels: Despite cooler conditions recently, very dry air is slowly starting to dry out 1000 hour fuels. As a result, the landscape is gradually becoming more conducive to fire that will burn more intensely and hold heat in heavier fuels that were once barriers. Snow cover in the southwest (and across much of the state by late in the period) will reverse this trend slightly with increased barriers to fire spread and mitigate overall fire potential in the region. Before this weekend's snow however, burn periods will be extended due to only moderate humidity recovery and breezy winds associated with frontal passages. The nature of the expected snow should be powdery and light. This will likely not have a significant impact on fuels alignment. Statewide Preparedness Level:     Forecast: Tuesday, January 20th Elevated fire weather for central and eastern Kansas.    Breezy southwest winds, up to 30mph are expected for all but the far northwest. This will overlap a dry air m...

Fuels: Widespread moisture occurred for all but northwest Kansas. For the most part, improvements in the fuels landscape were short-lived due to much drier air that moved in after the event. Still, soil moisture at the surface will keep matted grass and timber litter moist, acting more like a heavier fuel model in areas which received precipitation. Additionally, any lingering snow in the southwest will keep temperatures slightly cooler and reduce receptivity to fire early in the week. Through the period, widespread dry, warm and breezy conditions will begin to result in rapid drying. This will slowly bring heavier fuels into better alignment with the already conducive fine fuels. As a result, fire behavior will increase on days with heightened wind and fire weather. Barriers to spread will become less effective along with suppression success, especially where fuel loads are significant. Biggest area of large fire concern is the northwestern portion of the state that has now exceeded 5...

Fuels: High moisture airmasses have kept the fire environment in check over the past week despite continued lack of precipitation. As a result, indices reflect only marginally drying of the landscape with moderated ERCs for central/east Kansas. Further west, longer term dryness of 40+ days without wetting rains have allowed ERC to reach the 75th+ percentile and suggest a landscape more receptive to fire spread. Combined with a period of 48 hours of drying with a downslope wind event early this week, fire behavior during the afternoon burn period may approach extreme conditions and resist suppression - especially considering the fuel load in the southwest. Conditions will moderate mid-week before drier conditions return late week and into the weekend, increasing fire weather once again. Fire behavior is expected to continually increase through the period for all but the far southeast which may receive some light moisture late week.  Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forec...

Fuels: Continued dry conditions are expected through the period with only very limited moisture expected along a front Saturday/Sunday. This will push eastern Kansas to 20 days without wetting moisture, 30 days in the west. As a result, heavier fuels are continuing to slowly dry out and become more receptive. However, fine fuels will remain the primary driver of fire spread until late in the period. Overnight humidities are expected to remain moderate at the least and when combined with the short days, should keep daily burn periods rather short. Fuels will be most receptive on Wednesday through Friday when lower humidity will increase fire behavior each respective afternoon with at-to-near record high tempratures.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, December 22nd High pressure builds in to the east of the region overspreading light west/southwest winds across the state. A few gusts up to 20mph in the southeast, lighter elsewhere. Temperatures wil...