5/26/26 Forecast (5/26 - 6/2)

Fuels:

After welcomed precipitation for much of western Kansas last week, conditions have dried over the weekend. Still, moderated improvements remain with heavier fuels and some green-up. There still remains enough dormant vegetation in southwest Kansas to carry fire. However, these areas are more limited than previous months and are subject to increased barriers to spread. This will result in a reduction of fire behavior, making fire suppression more successful. Forecasted precipitation, higher humidity and increased cloud cover will bring additional fire moderating weather starting mid-week. This will continue progression of green-up, moisten heavier fuels and further limit any large fire potential through the remainder of the month.  


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Weekly Synopsis

Tue, May 26Wed, May 27Thu, May 28Fri, May 29Sat, May 30Sun, May 31Mon, June 1Tue, June 2
Highest Fire Wx ConcernNo fire weather concerns.
 

 

Tuesday, May 26th

Conditions will be the driest of the period, especially for western half of Kansas where afternoon humidity will fall into the mid-to-low 20% range. Winds will be breezy out of the southeast with gusts to 30mph likely in the afternoon. Combined with warm temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid-90s some borderline elevated fire weather is possible across western Kansas. Humidity will begin to increase along with cloud cover from the south in the late afternoon. 

  

 

  

 

 

Wednesday, May 27th

Tropical moisture will push northward into the region with increased clouds, scattered wetting rains and higher humidity. Conditions will remain warm/dry for north-central Kansas during the afternoon as high pressure holds some minimal influence on the region. There, temperatures will be reminiscent to Tuesday with highs near 90F, RH in the low 20% range and breezy southeast winds yielding borderline elevated fire weather. However, fuels are mostly un-receptive in this region and fire spread should be checked up quickly. On the fringe of this dry region, where it intersects with the increased moisture, there may be some isolated dry lightning strikes in the evening. 

 


 

Thursday, May 28th

Widespread showers and storms are expected for most of the state, especially in the morning. This moisture will become more spotty in the afternoon with isolated downpours. Northeast Kansas may miss most moisture and remain slightly drier. Still, with wide coverage of clouds and higher humidity, no fire weather concerns are expected. 

 

 

 

 Friday, May 29th

Some slightly drier surface air will push into western Kansas with RH down to about 30%. Still, prevalent tropical moisture will remain in the upper atmosphere. This will be adequate to trigger episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Wetting rains will be mostly limited unless a larger cluster of storms emerges. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

  

Saturday, May 30th

A slightly more potent low pressure system is expected to develop in the High Plains of CO/WY. This will allow for a dryline to develop and push east into far west Kansas. At this time, it appears it will only infringe on the CO/KS border with humidity down the 10-15% range. With south/southwest winds along/west of the dryline up to 30mph, elevated to near critical fire weather is possible. The bigger question is if fuels will be available due to recent precipitation. Dryline will retreat with moisture returning to the region after sunset. A few scattered afternoon storms are expected along and just east of the dryline.

 

 

 

 

 Sunday, May 31st

The dryline will push further into western Kansas, expanding warm/dry conditions into the state. Humidity will drop down to the 15-20% range with temperatures up to the low 90s. Winds will be lighter than the previous days, resulting in no fire weather concerns. Again, some scattered showers/storms, especially along and east of the dryline. 

  

 

 

Monday, June 1st

Warmer and drier with light southeast winds as high pressure builds into the region. With winds and recent fuels modifications from precipitation, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. Storms will try to push into the region from the northwest in the evening. A weak cold front will follow, crossing the state by early Tuesday.




Tuesday, June 2nd

Light northerly winds with mostly dry conditions across the state. Despite the recent front, temperatures will remain warm with highs in the low 90s. Winds will gradually shift back to the southeast in the afternoon. 

 

Chip (5/26/26)

Next forecast: 6/2/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 







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