3/31/25 Forecast (3/31 - 4/7)

 Fuels:

Precipitation and higher humidity the last several days have improved greenness and slightly improved 1000 hour statewide. Biggest improvements have been mostly along/east of I-35 where some moisture totals exceeded an inch. The result is a landscape becoming broken and much less potential for large fire. Wetting moisture between 0.1-0.25" occurred to the northwest of this region into the CO/NE/KS tristate area. Greenup will likely increase as a result in this region as well. Unfortunately, both southwest and northeast portions of the state missed out. Here fuels remain dry and conducive for aggressive fire behavior. The southwest especially will be exposed to continued warmer/drier than normal conditions into mid-week with potential for extreme behavior and significant resistance to suppression with above normal fuel loading. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 3


 

Growing season index: 50%

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 31st

Breezy south/southeast winds will develop along the CO border in the afternoon with a few gusts to 25mph possible. Winds will be weaker east of this area through the entire day. Overall, moderated humidity and cloud cover will moderate the fire environment through Monday. 

 

 

Tuesday, April 1st

Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas.  

Another strong low pressure system will take shape across northwest Kansas. This will stretch a dryline into central Kansas, likely reaching a Phillips to Comanche Co line. West of this line, afternoon humidity will fall to near 10% with winds out of the southwest, gusting to near 50mph. This will result in critical fire weather, especially for southwest Kansas were conditions will persist the longest. Periods of high clouds will mitigate some fire weather concerns and prevent extreme conditions. Winds will gradually shift westerly in the late afternoon with poor recovery overnight. Further east, higher humidity as moisture streams northward will still be accompanied by strong southerly winds. Thunderstorms are also likely in portions of eastern Kansas into Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, April 2nd

Elevated fire weather for all but southeast Kansas. 

Westerly winds will continue with drier air spreading east and encompassing the entire state.  Afternoon humidity as low as 10% in the west, increasing to around 20% in the east. Westerly winds will gust up to 35mph early in the day, weakening from west to east into the afternoon. A cold front will push south in the overnight with a wind shift to the north. 


Thursday, April 3rd

Moisture will increase along the front in southern Kansas, developing showers in portions of west/central Kansas by the afternoon. Some drier air will push into far southwest Kansas by late morning with afternoon humidity reaching the 15% range. With southerly winds up to 25mph, some brief elevated fire weather is possible before the cold front pushes south and clears the state by midnight. Periods of showers possible post-frontal. 


Friday, April 4th

Widespread cloud cover with episodes of precipitation, especially for south/southeast Kansas are expected. With cooler conditions and high humidity, fire weather concerns are minimal. 

 

 

 
Saturday, April 5th

Another storm system south of the state will continue to overspread cool, moist, cloudy and occasional precipitation. Wetting rain chances are again highest for southern Kansas. In the afternoon, northerly winds will increase across portions of northern and central Kansas. This will push in drier air with afternoon humidity falling into the 25-30% range. Clouds and previous moisture should keep fire weather concerns low.



Sunday, April 6th

Clouds clear as system departs to the east. This will allow temperatures to climb closer to normal and afternoon humidity to fall into the low 20% range statewide. Breezy northerly winds will diminish and become more westerly in the afternoon. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 


Monday, April 7th

Light westerly winds with continued quiet conditions. Temperatures slightly below normal with drier air remaining in place. 

 

Chip (3/31/25)

Next update 4/3/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.



 


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