10/6/25 Forecast (10/6 - 10/13)

Fuels:

After accelerated drying with above normal temperatures, clouds and moisture have returned to start the week. This will briefly moderate the fire environment into mid-week. However, with a return to warming again by late week, drying is expected to return. Cured, brown crops will react like a one hour fuel and become available during sunny days with warm/dry conditions. Even with some recent moisture, the landscape is slowly becoming more dormant as we get further into the fall. ERCs are expected to rebound back to near 50th percentile by the weekend. Additionally, increased wind will push BIs above the 50th percentile and fire behavior is expected to increase as a result after Friday and through the weekend. Spread will still be limited to cured fuels (mostly cropland) with continued numerous barriers to spread on the landscape. This should limit fire size, however, increase potential in spotting will occur as winds become stronger this weekend, potentially increasing suppression difficulty. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:

Monday, October 6th

Mostly overcast with periods of showers and thunderstorms for all but the southeast. Wetting rains expected for central and northeast Kansas with much cooler temperatures. Lingering warmth will persist in the southeast but no fire weather concerns. Winds less than previous days.  

 

 

Tuesday, October 7th

Showers and thunderstorms will shift south and diminish in the morning. Skies will clear with temperatures remaining cool, reaching the upper 60s. Humidity will fall into the upper 30% range for all but far west Kansas. Winds will light out of the northeast.  

 

 

Wednesday, October 8th

Winds shift out of the south/southeast as return flow brings moisture back into the region. A few gusts to 25mph are possible. Additionally, this flow will keep clouds and high humidity across western Kansas during the afternoon, expanding east during the evening. Temperatures will be persistently slightly below normal in the afternoon. 

 

 

 

  

Thursday, October 9th

Breezy southerly winds will persist and shift more southwestward in the afternoon along/ahead of  weak front. A few gusts to 25mph are likely, especially in central Kansas. Northwest will observe a shift towards winds more northerly post-frontal. Temperatures will warm bout 5-8F compared to Wednesday. However, humidity will remain moderated, dropping into the upper 30% range. 

 

 

 

Friday, October 10th

Southerly flow persists with temperatures warming into the 80F range for most of the region, warmest in the southwest. A few gusts to 30mph are possible in the late afternoon. Humidity will drop to around 30% in the southwest but remain more moderated to the north/east of that area.  Winds persist overnight and into Saturday.

 

 

 

Saturday, October 11th

Elevated fire weather in western Kansas on Saturday. 

Persistent southerly winds increase with afternoon gusts to 40mph, especially in central and western Kansas. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures will climb to the upper 80s, warmest in the southwest. Afternoon humidity will fall into the upper 20% range for much of the state. Where winds/RH overlap, especially in western Kansas, elevated fire weather is expected during the afternoon. Gusty winds will persist overnight with only moderate humidity recovery into Sunday. 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 12th

Elevated fire weather for most of the state. 

Persistent conditions for most of the state with warm, windy and dry. Afternoon humidity will once again drop into the upper 20% range resulting in elevated fire weather for much of the state. A cold front will push into northwest Kansas in the afternoon. This will bring a drop in temperatures and a wind shift to the west and northwest. Front will slowly progress to the southeast into Monday morning. 

 

  

Monday, October 13th

Cooler temperatures and northerly flow post-frontal. Conditions will remain dry with afternoon humidity in the 30% range. Clouds will slowly increase in the evening with winds shifting slowly overnight back out of the south. 

 

 

Chip (10/6/25)

Next forecast: 10/13/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.