4/18/26 Forecast (4/18 - 4/25)

Fuels:

Rapid drying has occurred over the last few days for much of southwest and central Kansas. Some reduction in green-up has been noted with decreases in fuel moisture as well as a result. Fuels at the beginning of the period in these regions will be completely available and conducive to extreme fire behavior. Even live deciduous vegetation/trees have shown group torching and significant spotting potential. Increased humidity, cooler temperatures and scattered precipitation will moderate the fire environment for the remainder of the work week. Further north/east, precipitation and higher humidity have checked up the fire environment and fuels are mostly resistant to fire spread.  


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Weekly Synopsis

Mon, May 18Tue, May 19Wed, May 20Thu, May 21Fri, May 22Sat, May 23Sun, May 24Mon, May 25
Highest Fire Wx ConcernExtreme






 

 

Monday, May 18th

Extreme fire weather for southwest Kansas.

A potent weather setup will drag a cold front south across the state during the day. In advance of the front in southwest Kansas, strong southwest winds will again gust to 45-50mph. Drier air will push back into the state with RH down to to the single digits and temperatures again near 100F. The front will cross the southwestern portion of the state in the evening with a significant wind shift. Post-frontal winds will reach the mid-40mph range with an increase in clouds, humidity and decrease in temperatures. Severe weather and precipitation expected for central and eastern Kansas.  

 

  

 

 

Tuesday, May 19th

Breezy northerly winds, gusting to 30mph will slowly transition to the east and weaken through the day. Temperatures will be cooler than previous days. Humidity will be moderated with lowest values in the mid-20% for the western half of the state. A few scattered showers/storms may develop in Colorado in the evening and move into far west Kansas. 


 

Wednesday, May 20th

Light east/southeast winds will keep ample moisture into the region with moderated humidity statewide. Temperatures will remain cool with no fire weather concerns. A few scattered showers/storms possible late day in west Kansas. 

 


 

 Thursday, May 21st

An area of light rain showers and cloud cover will traverse the state during the day. Overall wetting moisture will likely remain limited. Winds will remain light out of the east. Temperatures and humidity will remain moderated with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

  

Friday, May 22nd

Temperatures several degrees warmer will reach the 80F mark for much of the state. Humidity will be lower as a result as southerly winds push drier air into the region. Still, lingering moisture will develop scattered showers and thunderstorms with a small chance at dry lightning. 

 

 

 

 Saturday, May 23rd

Temperatures warm a few more degrees with mostly sunny skies. Humidity will remain moderately low with minimums in the 20% range. Winds will be light and out of the south/southeast. A few widely scattered showers and storms.

 

 

Sunday, May 24th

Temperatures warm into the mid-to-upper 80s, the warmest day in several days. Humidity will fall into the 20% range again for most of the west/central. Again, a few scattered storms possible but should remain fairly isolated. No fire weather concerns despite drying conditions.


Monday, May 25th

The warming trend continues with afternoon highs in the 90s. Winds shift out of the southwest pushing drier air into the region. Afternoon gusts up to 25mph possible with RH around 20%. This will result in borderline fire weather conditions for portions of western Kansas. 

 

 

Chip (5/18/26)

Next forecast: 5/25/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 






Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

10/6/25 Forecast (10/6 - 10/13)

Image
Fuels: After accelerated drying with above normal temperatures, clouds and moisture have returned to start the week. This will briefly moderate the fire environment into mid-week. However, with a return to warming again by late week, drying is expected to return. Cured, brown crops will react like a one hour fuel and become available during sunny days with warm/dry conditions. Even with some recent moisture, the landscape is slowly becoming more dormant as we get further into the fall. ERCs are expected to rebound back to near 50th percentile by the weekend. Additionally, increased wind will push BIs above the 50th percentile and fire behavior is expected to increase as a result after Friday and through the weekend. Spread will still be limited to cured fuels (mostly cropland) with continued numerous barriers to spread on the landscape. This should limit fire size, however, increase potential in spotting will occur as winds become stronger this weekend, potentially increasing suppressi...
Read more

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

12/15/25 Forecast (12/15 - 12/22)

Image
Fuels: Prolonged dry period continues across the state with as many as two weeks without wetting moisture in the east and 3-4 weeks in the west. With above normal temperatures expected this week, the fire environment is expected to respond towards higher fuel receptivity despite the shortest days of the year. Afternoon sun and periods of wind will increase fire behavior, making fire suppression more difficult. Behavior overall will remain limited to continuous fine fuels with heavier fuels and timber areas still holding over moisture and limiting fire growth. As the period continues, spread within these higher moisture areas may become possible and some large fire potential may be possible. This will be especially the case during higher winds. Overall fire behavior will continue to uptick until substantial moisture occurs which seems unlikely for the rest of the month.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, December 15th Elevated fire weather in sout...
Read more