5/4/26 Forecast (5/4 - 5/11)

Fuels:

Some much needed moisture fell across the western third of Kansas over the last week with more expected this week. This will continue to initiate green-up and moderate fuels conditions in the region. ERCs are projected in the west to remain at to slightly below the 50th percentile with reduced fire activity as a result. This will increase suppression success and lower spread rates and spotting potential, along with a more discontinuous fire landscape. Further east, green-up has become well established and has greatly reduced fire activity. However, drying is ongoing with limited moisture and little widespread precipitation forecasted. This will push ERCs towards the 50th percentile and behavior will be increased in areas where dormant fuels remain dominant. Otherwise, fire landscape will struggle to carry fire with limited to no large fire potential. . 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

 

Monday, May 4th

A weak low pressure system will develop during the evening in south-central Kansas. This will push drier air and westerly winds into southwest Kansas. Most gusts should stay generally under 20mph but humidity will drop to near 10% during the afternoon. This could briefly develop elevated fire weather. Elsewhere, dry conditions will also persist across all but the southeast with afternoon minimum RH values in the teens with warm temperatures. Scattered showers and storms will develop late afternoon with isolated wetting rains, especially in the west and east. Cold front crosses the area overnight into Tuesday with winds shifting north and continued scattered moisture. 

  

 

 

 

Tuesday, May 5th

Much cooler statewide with breezy northeast winds. Lowest humidity along the OK border in the afternoon with values in the mid-30% range. Otherwise, periods of showers and storms, especially in the northwest, dwindling with eastern extent. No fire concerns.  


 

Wednesday, May 6th

Continued precipitation in the west with some snow mixing in. Occasionally, some of the moisture may push into central Kansas but dry air will likely result in less reaching the ground. Continued very seasonably cool air with high humidity statewide. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 


 Thursday, May 7th

 High pressure builds back in with winds shifting more west/southwest. Winds may be breezy at times, reaching the 15-20mph. With drier air in place and temperatures warming back to near normal, afternoon humidity will fall into the upper 20% range. However, with recent moisture and green-up, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low. 

 

 

  

Friday, May 8th

Weak cold front pushes south across the state in the morning. This will shift winds out of the north during the day, but gusts should remain under 15mph. Otherwise, temperatures will actually warm a few degrees with drying conditions across the region. Afternoon RH may fall as low as the 20% range for western Kansas. With light winds, no fire weather concerns.

 

 

 

 

 Saturday, May 9th

Elevated fire weather in southwest Kansas.  

 A more potent storm system may develop across the region. This will overspread much warmer/drier conditions into western half of the state as a dryline pushes into central Kansas. Temperatures may push to 90F with afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range. Winds may gust up to 25mph in the afternoon from the south/southwest. Elevated fire weather may develop in the afternoon for southwest Kansas in areas that didn't receive moisture earlier in the week. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along and east of the dryline in the afternoon. A cold front will push south across the state in the overnight with scattered showers/storms.

 

  

 

Sunday, May 10th

Cooler temperatures will settle back into the region with post-frontal conditions. Northerly winds may be breezy at times but remain mostly below the 25mph range. Afternoon humidity will fall into the mid-30% range for portions of central and southwest Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Monday, May 11th

High pressure remains over the area with mostly light winds. Temperatures will warm slightly compared to Sunday with some afternoon humidity in central Kansas down to the 30% range. Otherwise, mostly quiet weather is expected. 

 

Chip (5/4/26)

Next forecast: 5/11/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 




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