12/15/25 Forecast (12/15 - 12/22)

Fuels:

Prolonged dry period continues across the state with as many as two weeks without wetting moisture in the east and 3-4 weeks in the west. With above normal temperatures expected this week, the fire environment is expected to respond towards higher fuel receptivity despite the shortest days of the year. Afternoon sun and periods of wind will increase fire behavior, making fire suppression more difficult. Behavior overall will remain limited to continuous fine fuels with heavier fuels and timber areas still holding over moisture and limiting fire growth. As the period continues, spread within these higher moisture areas may become possible and some large fire potential may be possible. This will be especially the case during higher winds. Overall fire behavior will continue to uptick until substantial moisture occurs which seems unlikely for the rest of the month. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 1

 

Forecast:


Monday, December 15th

Elevated fire weather in southeast Kansas.  

Much warmer temperatures today with values closer to normal (mid-40s) statewide. Breezy southwest winds expected for eastern Kansas with gusts up to 30mph. Overall humidity will remain moderated in this region with afternoon minimums in the 30% range. This could develop some briefly elevated fire weather in the far southeast this afternoon. Further west, winds shift west/northwest with only a few gusts to 15mph. These downslope winds will push in much drier air, with afternoon humidity down to 10-15% across much of western Kansas, more moderated in the central. Westerly flow will persist overnight in the west and gradually expand into central Kansas with reduced overnight humidity recovery. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, December 16th

Elevated fire weather in northwest Kansas. 

Persistent weather pattern will remain in place with breezy southwest winds in the east and west/northwest west in the west. Winds will be strongest in far northwest Kansas as a weak front pushes into the region. Here, elevated fire weather will develop in the afternoon with afternoon humidity down to the teens once again with temperatures in the 60s. Further east, humidity will remain more moderated. Winds shift northerly statewide overnight with increased humidity recovery.

 


 

Wednesday, December 17th

Winds shift southerly in advance of a stronger front. This will result in temperatures cooler than previous days and increases in afternoon humidity with minimums in the 30% range. This should limit overall fire weather concerns despite some gusts to 40mph along the CO border. Potent cold front will push southeast across the state into early Thursday with winds increasing to 45mph out of the northwest.

 

 

   

   

Thursday, December 18th

Critical fire weather expected all of Kansas. 

Strong northwest winds will overtake the region with gusts as high as 55mph along the NE border. Winds will reach the mid-40mph range elsewhere. Despite a slightly cooler air mass with temperatures in the mid-40s, a dry air mass will keep humidity in the 15-20% range in the afternoon. Additionally, mostly sunny skies will lead to increases probability of ignition should any fire start. The combination of these factors will result in critical fire weather during the burn period. Winds will gradually diminish after sunset from west to east. Southerly winds will develop overnight along the CO border with overall low humidity recovery into Friday. 

 

 


Friday, December 19th

Winds shift southerly and remain gusty with afternoon gusts reaching the 40mph for central and eastern Kansas. Temperatures will rebound and reside above normal by about ten degrees (50-60F) with afternoon humidity gradually increasing during the day. Minimum RH will reach the mid-20% range in central/east Kansas early in the afternoon and will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will persist after sunset with slow to recover conditions into Saturday. 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, December 20th

Weak front will push through early Saturday morning. This will result in winds shifting northerly. At this time, gusts appear to remain mostly light in nature with a few gusts to 30mph in the north, otherwise less. Humidity will remain fairly moderated with minimums in the mid-30% range, higher in the east due to increased cloud cover. 


 

Sunday, December 21st

Much cooler with moderated humidity compared to previous days. Winds will remain light and generally easterly through the period. Maximum gusts should remain under 20mph with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

  

Monday, December 22nd

Temperatures remain moderated but warm a few degrees. Afternoon humidity will reside in the mid-30% range. Light southerly winds gradually increase with a few gusts to 25mph late in the day for central/eastern Kansas. Fire weather should remain minimal.  

 

 

Chip (12/15/25)

Next forecast: 12/22/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

Image
 Fuels: Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread.    Weekly Statewide PL: ~3 Onset GSI:   Forecast: Monday, March 10th Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward ...
Read more

3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Image
Fuels:  Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-ce...
Read more