5/11/26 Forecast (5/11 - 5/18)

Fuels:

Much needed moisture occurred across most of the northwest and west-central Kansas last week. This moisture has helped to improve fuels status and begin to initiate greenup. Areas that missed the moisture, especially the southwest and south-central, continue to observe little to no greening and fuels still at/above the 75th percentile. These areas will be most favored for any large fire activity. Elsewhere, greenup has resulted in a mosaic of scattered conducive fuel on the landscape. With warmer than normal temperatures forecasted this week, combined with low humidity and breezy winds, drying is likely to stress even green areas. As a result,the potential for initial attack will increase for most of the state outside the southwest/central, but large fire potential is relatively low. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Weekly Synopsis
Mon, May 11Tue, May 12Wed, May 13Thu, May 14Fri, May 15Sat, May 16Sun, May 17Mon, May 18
Highest Fire Wx ConcernElevatedCriticalElevatedElevated

 

Monday, May 11th

Breezy southerly winds expected statewide with temperatures much warmer. Gusts will reach the mid-20mph range in the afternoon. Temperatures will push the low 80s for most of the state. This will result in afternoon minimum RH in the mid-20% range with sunny skies. Breezy winds will continue overnight with only moderate humidity recovery into Tuesday. 

 

  

 

 

 

Tuesday, May 12th

Elevated fire weather for south-central Kansas.  

A cold front will push into northwest Kansas early morning and slowly push southeast through the day. While temperatures won't change, winds will shift out of the north/northeast with some gusts to near 30mph. Just ahead of the front, temperatures will surge to near 100F in south-central Kansas. This will result in a very dry afternoon with humidity down to the 10-15% range. Winds will be lighter in this corridor, with gusts only up to 20mph out of the southwest. Wind shift will reach the region by late afternoon with a wind shift for any fires on the landscape. 


 

Wednesday, May 13th

Winds shift back to the south/southeast with widespread continued above normal temperatures. Winds may gust up to 25mph in the afternoon, especially in western Kansas. With temperatures in the mid-80s for most of the state, afternoon RH will fall to the 20% range. In southwest Kansas, temperatures will reach the 90F mark with RH in the teens. Winds will continue overnight but moisture will increase ahead of an incoming storm system. This will result in good overnight recovery. A dryline will become established in far southwest Kansas into early Thursday with only moderate, at best, recovery in far southwest.

 


 

 Thursday, May 14th

Critical fire weather for southwest and south-central Kansas. 

Dryline will become more established early morning and push eastward into central Kansas. Winds along and east of the dryline will reach the 35-40mph range with higher humidity, in the mid-40% range. West of the dryline, winds will be west/southwest and gusting to 30mph. Combined with extremely warm temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s, RH will fall into the 10-15% range. This will yield critical fire weather where drier fuels reside in southwest/central Kansas. Storms will initiate in western Kansas during the late afternoon and shift east. Precipitation is expected to be limited until the storms reach east of the dryline. Thus, a dry lightning threat will exist in proximity to these storms in west/central Kansas. Dryline will retreat westward overnight with continuing breezy southerly winds and scattered showers/storms. Improved RH recovery expected into Friday.

 

 

  

Friday, May 15th

High pressure will build into the region pushing dry air eastward again for most of the state. Winds will be briefly northerly before switching back to the southeast and should be relatively light. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the low 80s. RH across most of the region should be in the 25-30% range except for the southwest, where values will drop into the upper teens. A few widely scattered storms are possible. If any do form, there will be a small dry lightning risk into the evening. 

 

 

 Saturday, May 16th

Elevated fire weather in west and central Kansas.  

Southerly flow becomes established ahead of yet another storm system. Winds will gust up to 35mph. Another dryline will develop in west Kansas and push into the central portion of the state during the day. This will shift winds more southwesterly and be the trigger for several potentially severe thunderstorms. Some dry lightning risk is likely with these cells as temperatures will be near 100F and the lower atmosphere, even east of the dryline will be dry. Afternoon minimum RH will be in the 15-20% for most of the west, increasing to 25% in the central and 30-40% in the east. Eventually into the evening a bigger complex of storms will develop and track east with a localized region of wetting rain. Breezy southwest winds will continue into early Sunday.

 

Sunday, May 17th

Elevated fire weather in west and central Kansas.  

Dryline will be more oriented from south-central Kansas and into northeast. Very warm air will be along and just west of it with temperatures potentially as high as 100F, RH down to the 20-25% range and southwest winds to 30mph. Storms are expected to once again erupt in the afternoon along and/or just west of the dryline. This will develop dry lightning concern initially. Then, storms will congeal and shift eastward with more widespread wetting moisture potential. Cold front overnight will shift winds to the north/northeast west of the storms. Most of west and central Kansas will likely remain dry.  

 

Monday, May 18th

Forecast will depend on how far south cold front gets. Most guidance suggests that front will linger in the south with the potential for more scattered thunderstorms. North of the front, for most of the state, winds will be more northeast with much cooler conditions.  Humidity will also be moderated for most of the region and remain above 40%. Little to no fire weather concerns.

 

 

Chip (5/11/26)

Next forecast: 5/18/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 





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