4/20/26 Forecast (4/20 - 4/27)

Fuels:

Fuels remain mostly unchanged from last week. Eastern portion of the state continued to see some areas of isolated heavy rains. Further west, a fuels advisory remains in place and the region has gone mostly precipitation-free with many locations approaching 70 days without wetting moisture. For most of central and western Kansas, wheat continues to fail and with another freeze over the weekend, additional stress has been placed on the area's only resistant barrier to spread. Thus, even wheat should not be considered an adequate place to stop wildfires. Heavy fuels also remain extremely dry and are consuming completely. As a result, the landscape is conducive to large fire activity when weather conditions align. Expect extreme fire behavior, increased spotting, significant mop up and high rekindle potential until adequate moisture is received. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

 

 

Monday, April 20th

Critical fire weather for west and central Kansas 

Return flow pattern will persist with breezy south/southwest winds to 30mph and very warm/dry conditions. Afternoon RH will drop to around the 10% range for much of the region with mostly sunny skies. Where dry conditions have prevailed, this will develop afternoon critical fire weather. Winds will increase out of the south overnight but humidity will dramatically increase as Gulf moisture streams into the region.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, April 21st

A dryline will push east into central Kansas with high moisture to the east of it. There, winds will gust up to 40mph during the afternoon with increased cloud cover. Further west, despite dry conditions and sunny skies, winds will be minimal and light. This will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Wednesday, April 22nd

Critical fire weather along and just east of the Colorado border.  

Moisture will surge back westward by early morning Wednesday. This will result in the dryline setting up just east of the Colorado border during the afternoon. Critical fire weather, with breezy southwest winds and low humidity will push one to two counties east of the border. Additionally, several widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline in the evening. Unfortunately, storms will likely be isolated and pose a risk for dry lightning across an area that has cured fuels and increasing drought. With breezy outflow winds and gusty southerly transitioning to westerly winds overnight, humidity recovery into Thursday will be minimal in far west Kansas.

 

 

 


 Thursday, April 23rd

Extreme fire weather for southwest Kansas, critical for the remainder of west/central.

Dryline pushes eastward in the morning to the Flint Hills region. West of the dryline, a push of very dry air and southwest winds to 45mph will move into southwest and potentially portions of central Kansas. This will result in extreme fire weather conditions during the burn period. Some cloud cover may lessen the overall impact some. With breezy westerly winds, critical fire weather is also expected in northwest as well. East of the dryline, scattered showers/storms, some severe are likely in the late afternoon. A cold front will cross the region overnight into Friday. This will present a challenging wind shift to any fires that become established earlier in the day.

 

 

  

Friday, April 24th

Elevated fire weather for most of central/west Kansas. 

Breezy northwest winds in the morning will turn more east, then southeast with gusts early up to 35mph. Despite a much cooler air mass pushing into the region, conditions will remain dry with afternoon RH in the 10-15% for much of western Kansas. This will result in early elevated fire weather with lessening conditions into the late afternoon. A few scattered storms are possible in southwest Kansas late in the day. With very dry air in place, dry lightning will again be possible into Saturday morning. Areas of showers/storms will continue and slowly progress east into early Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 Saturday, April 25th 

A backdoor cold front will slide south through the early early Saturday. This will overspread much cooler conditions along with widespread cloud cover across the state. Additional periods of showers/storms are also likely through the afternoon. Despite northerly winds gusting at times to 35mph, fire weather conditions appear minimal.

  

 

Sunday, April 26th

Elevated to near-critical fire weather in the far southwest. 

A low pressure system will form just southwest of Kansas and try to push warmer/drier air into far southwest Kansas. This could develop some locally critical fire weather in the far southwest, but spatial coverage will be limited. Much cooler air will reside further north and east across the state with episodes of showers and thunderstorms into Monday.

 

 

 

Monday, April 27th

Continued much cooler conditions with heavy cloud cover as another frontal system pushes south across the area. Breezy northwest winds are expected across the region but high humidity will forego any fire weather concerns. 

 

Chip (4/20/26)

Next forecast: 4/27/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 


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