4/27/26 Forecast (4/27 - 5/4)

Fuels:

Much of central and eastern Kansas continued to receive episodes of light to moderate rainfall. This has reduced the overall fire potential and greatly improved ERCs and 1000hr fuel moistures. While drying is expected to occur this week, greenup will mitigate any fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, especially the southwest, along the CO border and south-central Kansas, some areas still haven't received wetting moisture for 70+ days. These areas continue to see potential for large fire spread until precipitation occurs with dormant vegetation. ERCs, while improved with higher humidity values, still reside up to the 70th percentile. Fire behavior in these areas, especially in dormant grasses will still have the potential for extreme conditions under critical fire weather. However, improvement is expected by mid-week in this area with higher moisture and some precipitation potential. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

 

 

Monday, April 27th

Low pressure shifts eastward with scattered showers in east Kansas along/ahead of the front. Additional showers also likely in the northwest into early Tuesday. Overall cooler weather conditions and high humidity will limit any fire weather concerns. Some drier air will persist just south of the front in southwest Kansas but conditions will be below elevated levels.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, April 28th

Breezy northerly winds will persist with cooler conditions and a few rain showers for northern Kansas. Drier conditions further south. Stalled front will creep close to the OK/KS border in far southwest Kansas with some humidity in the 25-30% range but fire weather concerns will be low. 

 

 

 

Wednesday, April 29th

Winds turn more southeasterly across the state ahead of another reinforcing cold front. This will allow temperatures to subtly increase but mostly high moisture will remain. Showers will develop along the front in the afternoon in far west Kansas and slowly overspread towards the south into Thursday. 

 

 

 


 Thursday, April 30th

Cold front will shift back northward as a warm front during the day. This will allow moisture to funnel into the region with showers/storms across mostly western Kansas, only isolated in the central/east. Winds will be light until a stronger cold front pushes south in the evening. This will gradually shift the showers/storms more in southwest Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

  

Friday, May 1st

Continued cool conditions with sunshine and light north winds. A few showers early but most of the precipitation should reside south and west of the state. Areas of frost possible into early Saturday morning with cool conditions.

 

 

 

 

 Saturday, May 2nd

Winds shift more westerly with light downslope flow. This will overspread slightly warmer/drier air across the state. Afternoon RH will fall to around the mid-20% range by the afternoon for most of west and central Kansas. However, with recent moisture and overall light winds, fire concerns will remain low. 

 

  

 

Sunday, May 3rd

Elevated fire weather briefly possible for southwest Kansas. 

Winds shift more southwesterly with conditions continuing to warm and dry compared to Saturday. Afternoon humidity may fall down to near 20% but duration should be limited in time. Some elevated fire is possible briefly in the afternoon when some gusts reach the 25mph mark. Overnight humidity recovery will be moderate with continued light west/southwest wind into Monday.

 

 

 

Monday, May 4th

Elevated fire weather possible for far southwest Kansas. 

A low pressure system will likely develop in the central Plains ahead of a cold front. This could potentially sustain breezy southwest flow into southwest Kansas during the burn period. With reduced recovery the previous night, some elevated fire weather is possible. However, location of the front/low and timing are a bit uncertain and with recent moisture, it is likely that greenup will be rapidly occurring across the region. A few scattered showers and storms are likely further east and north.

 

Chip (4/27/26)

Next forecast: 5/3/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 



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