11/24/25 Forecast (11/24 - 12/1)

 

Fuels:

Widespread moisture continues to suppress any fire weather potential and keep fuel moistures above normal for late November. Widespread 0.7-2.5" of rainfall has occurred over the last several days. Additionally, high humidity continues to be prevalent with good overnight recoveries. Even "dry" days while observe moderated humidity conditions only down to the 30% range or so. As a result, only areas of fine fuels may see some brief availability on the drier days mid-week. Otherwise, greening wheat and moist timber regions will provide significant barriers to spread and keep any fires small. Spotting potential is low with spread rates minimal unless they align with peak winds on Tuesday. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 1

 

Forecast:


Monday, November 24th

Low pressure continues to slowly move east out of the state. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with extensive overcast and even areas of fog. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, November 25th

Strong cold front pushes southeast across the state early morning. This will result in falling temperatures and winds picking up out of the northwest. Gusts could reach up to 45mph statewide, with a few gusts to 50 possible in the far northwest. A drier (but cooler) airmass will push in with afternoon minimum RH down to the 25-30% range, especially west of US-81. Humidity will increase after sunset with winds gradually diminishing. 

 


 

Wednesday, November 26th

High pressure will reside over the state with fairly tranquil conditions. Winds will be northerly for eastern Kansas, southerly for west and light/variable for central. A few gusts to 20mph possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler and near normal for late November. Overall dry conditions with afternoon minimum humidity around 30%. No fire weather concerns.  

 

 

   

   

Thursday, November 27th

High pressure persists over the state with similar wind flows but overall lighter winds than Wednesday. Temperatures a few degrees warmer and afternoon humidity remaining around the 30% range. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 


Friday, November 28th

Southerly winds increase pushing moisture into the state. With increased clouds, fog and moisture, afternoon humidity will struggle to fall below 50% keeping fire danger in check. Temperatures will remain warmer until a cold front crosses the region overnight and into Saturday. 

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Saturday, November 29th

Much colder temperatures with breezy northerly winds. Persistent cloud cover will reside over the region as moisture lingers with some precipitation, likely light rain in the east. No fire weather concerns.  


 

Sunday, November 30th

More widespread light moisture is expected as the main storm system traverses the region. Some snow possible in the north and rainfall in the east. Winds will be increased with some gusts to 25mph. High humidity and cool temperatures will keep fire weather concerns in check. 

 

 

  

Monday, December 1st

Storm system starts to exit to the east with southwest winds transitioning northwest. This will result in drier conditions overall. However, much colder conditions are expected. There is potential for another storm approach by mid-week which at the least will continue to keep fire weather concerns negligible. 

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Chip (11/24/25)

Next forecast: 12/1/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

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