12/22/25 Forecast (12/22 - 12/29)

Fuels:

Continued dry conditions are expected through the period with only very limited moisture expected along a front Saturday/Sunday. This will push eastern Kansas to 20 days without wetting moisture, 30 days in the west. As a result, heavier fuels are continuing to slowly dry out and become more receptive. However, fine fuels will remain the primary driver of fire spread until late in the period. Overnight humidities are expected to remain moderate at the least and when combined with the short days, should keep daily burn periods rather short. Fuels will be most receptive on Wednesday through Friday when lower humidity will increase fire behavior each respective afternoon with at-to-near record high tempratures. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, December 22nd

High pressure builds in to the east of the region overspreading light west/southwest winds across the state. A few gusts up to 20mph in the southeast, lighter elsewhere. Temperatures will warm into the mid-60s in the west where winds are more westerly and downslope. This will allow the afternoon humidity to fall to near 20% during the afternoon. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, December 23rd

Winds shift easterly with a few gusts to 15-20mph. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees in the west, and bump up a few degrees in the east with overall above normal temperatures statewide. Humidity will remain moderated for all but the far southwest portion of the state where values will drop as low as 20%. 

 


 

Wednesday, December 24th

Elevated fire weather west of US 81 and south of I-70 for southwestern Kansas.  

Weak cold front drops south into the state with light winds along and north of it, likely oriented along I-70. Ahead/south of the front, southwest winds gust up to 20-25mph. Temperatures won't be impacted much with at/near record values for most of the state. Humidity will drop into the 15-20% along/west of US 81, higher to the east. This will result in an overlap of wind/humidity for southwest Kansas that'll develop afternoon elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Humidity will increase overnight with good recovery into Thursday. 

 

 

   

   

Thursday, December 25th

Elevated fire weather for far southwest Kansas.

Southwest winds and dry/warm conditions will persist across the region, especially in southwest Kansas. This is where RH will fall below 20% and afternoon gusts may exceed 20mph. Otherwise, humidity will moderate with east/northern extent and winds will gradually become more southerly. Good humidity recovery expected for all but far west Kansas into Friday.

 

 

 


Friday, December 26th

Elevated fire weather for west of US-81.

Likely the warmest day of the period with an increase in westerly downslope winds across much of the state. This will drop humidity into the 20% range for all of the state with some teens west of US-81. In this area, winds will gust up to 25mph during the afternoon hours resulting in elevated fire weather. Further east, winds will be more southerly and lighter. Humidity will be slower to recover with continuing west winds into the overnight. 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, December 27th

Elevated fire weather statewide. 

Cold front will enter the state during the afternoon hours. Ahead/south of the front, breezy westerly winds will continue with gusts to 25mph and RH as low as the teens creating elevated fire weather. Behind/north of the front, humidity will be unchanged with winds shifting north, gusting to 30mph. This will combine for elevated fire weather through the region with a wind shift during the afternoon burn period. A few isolated showers are possible in the east into the overnight with a few flurries in the northwest. Gusty northerly winds will persist into Sunday with only moderate humidity recovery.  


 

Sunday, December 28th

Breezy northwest winds, up to 30mph especially in northeast Kansas with cooler conditions. However, a dry air mass will keep humidity in the 20% range for most of the state. This will lead to early elevated fire weather conditions, gradually easing in the early afternoon.  

 

 

 

  

Monday, December 29th

Light northwest winds continue across the region with gusts mostly under 20mph. Humidity will gradually increase with some light precipitation possible in southern Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Chip (12/22/25)

Next forecast: 12/29/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

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