11/10/25 Forecast (11/10 - 11/17)

Fuels:

Additional widespread freezes have occurred and now the entire landscape of Kansas has transitioned to winter dormancy. As a result, fine fuel availability will be reliant upon day-to-day fire weather conditions. Additionally, leaf fall continues to progress and is nearing completion. While these leaves will take some time to fully dry out, there is now continuous fuel loading within timber areas which were previous barriers to fire spread. Drier conditions over the last week have begin to reduce soil moisture and coinciding fuels. This will result in gradually increasing fire behavior until moisture is observed. Humidity recoveries remain good which is limiting the overall burn window as the days get shorter. Where more prolonged dry conditions reside, especially in the southwest, fire behavior may be aggressive. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, November 10th

High pressure will shift east with southerly flow starting to return for the west half of the state. Wind gusts to 20mph briefly in the afternoon and evening. Winds will continue overnight as a weak front pushes in to the state by early Tuesday. Otherwise, persistent dry conditions with minimum RH in the 30% range and temperatures warming a few degrees compared to Sunday. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, November 11th

Elevated fire weather west of US-81.  

Weak cold front continues to progress east through the day. Breezy northerly winds, with some gusts to 25mph are expected for most of west/central Kansas. Temperatures will remain warmer despite the front with slightly drier conditions than Monday, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range. Some elevated fire weather possible west of US-81 in the afternoon before winds begin to diminish into the evening. 

 


 

Wednesday, November 12th

Brief high pressure builds to the east of the state with southerly flow returning once again. A few gusts to 15-20mph in western Kansas, otherwise winds will be lighter with east extent. Temperatures will remain warm with highs approaching the 70F mark with persistent dry conditions. Afternoon minimum RH around the 20% range. However, lighter winds will result in mostly benign fire conditions. 

 

 

   

   

Thursday, November 13th

Moisture increases with continued southerly flow. This will increase humidity for all but the far western edge of the state where afternoon values will fall to about 20%. Afternoon wind gusts will reach the 15-20mph range. Temperatures remain warm with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 


Friday, November 14th

Elevated fire weather west of US-281.   

Southerly winds increases ahead of a stronger storm system. Moisture will remain moderated in eastern Kansas. However, further west, more southwesterly winds will result in drier/warmer conditions. With some gusts to 25mph and afternoon humidity down to 15-20%, this will result in at least elevated fire weather during the afternoon.  Humidity recovery overnight in southwest Kansas will be poor with continued breezy winds into Saturday. 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 15th

Front will enter northwest Kansas in the morning and gradually push southeast through the day. Temperature change will be minimal with light northerly flow post-frontal. Additionally, dry air will result in humidity in the 15-20% range for most of central/west Kansas. Breezier southwest winds are expected in advance of the front, mostly in southeast Kansas. Winds could gust up to 35mph in the afternoon. However, higher humidity will mitigate fire weather conditions pre-frontal.  

 

 


Sunday, November 16th

Elevated fire weather for all but southeastern Kansas.   

Stronger storm system will slide along the station front just south of Kansas. At the current time, it appears that the greatest moisture potential is in the far southeast where up to 0.5" may occur. For the remainder of the state, an increase in northerly winds are expected with cooler (and persistent dry) conditions pushing into the region. Most of the state outside the southeast, will observe elevated fire weather conditions with winds gusting to 35mph and afternoon minimum humidity in the 25-30% range. Winds and conditions will diminish after sunset. 

 

  

Monday, November 17th

As the previous storm moves off to the east, southerly flow will return quickly as an active pattern continues. This will result in breezy winds up to 30mph and a potential return flow setup with afternoon humidity low despite cooler temperatures. This could potentially develop elevated fire weather conditions for most of the state during the afternoon hours. 

. 

 

 

Chip (11/10/25)

Next forecast: 11/17/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.
























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