11/17/25 Forecast (11/17 - 11/24)

Fuels:

Dry period continues across the region with many locations within the state up to at least 20 days without wetting moisture. As a result, fuels conditions continue to slowly hedge towards increased fire receptivity with upward trends in ERCs and KBDI. Additionally, 1000 hr fuels are also gradually decreasing. This is allowing the landscape to become more supportive of fire activity, especially in areas with continuous fine fuel loading. The potential for holdovers and rekindles are also increasing. However, timber areas continue to hold more moisture despite recent leaf fall and fire behavior is expected to be checked up. Therefore, potential for large fires remains low with quite a few barriers to spread on the landscape. With decreasing sunshine, any elevated fire weather period should remain fairly short. Lastly, an influx of moisture late week will likely bring a reversal in recent trends and decreasing fire potential into the weekend.   

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, November 17th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas. 

Low pressure system will track west to east across the state late day. This will overspread an increase in winds, strongest in central and eastern Kansas with gusts to 35mph. However, clouds and increased moisture will result in RH only falling to the 50% range. Further west, a dryline will push across southwest and into south central Kansas. This will shift winds more southwesterly, slightly weaker with gusts to 25mph with RH dropping into the upper teens. This will result in elevated to near critical fire weather for southwest Kansas. Drier air will reside in northwest Kansas, however, winds should be lighter and more northwest behind a cold frontal passage, limiting fire weather concerns. Humidity will be slow to recover in southwest Kansas overnight. 

 

 


 

Tuesday, November 18th

Stronger cold front pushes south in the very early morning of Tuesday. This will shift winds northerly and a decrease in temperatures compared to Monday. Winds won't be overly strong with peak gusts only in the mid-20mph range. Air mass will be fairly moist with afternoon humidity only dropping into the mid-30% range.  Good overnight recovery into Wednesday. 

 


 

Wednesday, November 19th

Southerly return flow develops as another, more potent storm system approaches from the west. This will draw Gulf moisture northward into the region with afternoon RH only dropping to the 30% range for most of the state. The only exception is along the CO border, where winds will be lighter and RH will fall to around 20%. For the remainder of the state, southerly winds will gust to 20mph. 

 

 

   

   

Thursday, November 20th

Storm ejects off the Rockies and develops a low south of Kansas. This will wrap Gulf moisture north/west around the low with widespread shower activity across southern Kansas in the afternoon. As low moves northeast, precipitation will shift northerly and most of the state should observe a wetting rain into Friday morning. 

 

 

 


Friday, November 21st

Lingering showers and clouds will persist with the greatest chance for wetting moisture in the north and eastern portions of the state. Winds will increase out of the northwest with some gusts to 25mph. However, widespread higher humidity will negate any fire weather concerns. Much colder. 

. 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 22nd

Breezy northerly winds will diminish by the early AM. Winds will then shift southerly was return flow in advance of yet another storm system will occur. This will result in a few gusts to 20mph during the afternoon. Moisture will be a bit limited with afternoon RH dropping into the 40% range, potentially lower in the east. However, despite temperatures rebounding to the 60s, fire weather should remain minimal during this transition day. 


 

 


Sunday, November 23rd

Forecast models diverge on the track of the storm system Sunday through Monday. It appears that the most likely solution is for moderated moisture to linger across the state with afternoon humidity in the 30-40% range. Moderate southerly flow will persist with some gusts to 25mph. Despite widespread sun and warmer temperatures, moderated humidity should mitigate fire weather concerns. 

 

 

  

Monday, November 24th

A complex storm system will begin to take shape across the Plains that will usher in a dramatic colder change by the end of the week. Widespread clouds and higher moisture is expected to curtail any fire weather concerns. Best chance for moisture will be the southeastern portion of the state.  

. 

 

 

Chip (11/17/25)

Next forecast: 11/24/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

Image
 Fuels: Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread.    Weekly Statewide PL: ~3 Onset GSI:   Forecast: Monday, March 10th Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward ...
Read more

3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Image
Fuels:  Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-ce...
Read more