KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: After accelerated drying with above normal temperatures, clouds and moisture have returned to start the week. This will briefly moderate the fire environment into mid-week. However, with a return to warming again by late week, drying is expected to return. Cured, brown crops will react like a one hour fuel and become available during sunny days with warm/dry conditions. Even with some recent moisture, the landscape is slowly becoming more dormant as we get further into the fall. ERCs are expected to rebound back to near 50th percentile by the weekend. Additionally, increased wind will push BIs above the 50th percentile and fire behavior is expected to increase as a result after Friday and through the weekend. Spread will still be limited to cured fuels (mostly cropland) with continued numerous barriers to spread on the landscape. This should limit fire size, however, increase potential in spotting will occur as winds become stronger this weekend, potentially increasing suppressi...

Fuels: As the fall season progresses and daylight becomes more limited, some fuels are beginning to transition into dormancy. Additionally, recent warm, sunny and dry conditions have been gradually drying the landscape with ERCs increasing. This is coinciding with a period of heavy harvesting activity within cured croplands that will be conducive to carry fire. Otherwise, the landscape is mostly misaligned with good overnight recovery and still a lot of drying needed in the wooded regions and native prairie. Initial attack is expected to increase through the period but fire size should remain limited as a result. As winds increase late week, rates of spread and spotting potential will increase and a small window of opportunity for larger fires may open. However, with a frontal passage and increased precipitation chances this weekend, fire activity will likely become more limited as the vegetation responds accordingly.      Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Grow...

  Fuels: Fuels remain very wet as high humidity persists with periods of rainfall. Even with above normal temperatures persisting, conditions will remain mostly unreceptive to fire through the period. While most the landscape consists of green/active vegetation, some photo-sensitive and agricultural crops are beginning to transition to dormancy with shorter days. Therefore, some vegetation will be available if drier conditions are observed, however, no windows of opportunity are expected. Otherwise, heavy fuels remain under the 10%-tile for the period and will require extensive drying before becoming available for fire.   Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Growing Season Index:      Forecast: Monday, September 22nd Mostly dry conditions expected during the day with high humidity values. Storms will develop late afternoon in western Kansas and expand coverage across most of the state into Tuesday morning. Some severe weather and heavy rain possible with...

  Fuels: Despite some drier and warmer conditions last week, fuels remain below average and mostly unsupportive of carrying fire. Only cured fuels on the Kansas landscape are dormant crops. Otherwise, Growing Season Index is 90% or higher for but far west Kansas. With periods of showers/storms expected daily through the week, the fuel landscape will remain steady with no drastic changes expected.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Growing Season Index:      Forecast: Monday, September 15th Driest day of the week with temperatures in the mid-80s. Afternoon humidity will remain high with values only falling into the upper 30% range. Light southerly winds.        Tuesday, September 16th Afternoon showers and storms develop, especially along and north of I-70. With widespread clouds and higher humidity, temperatures will reside a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Light southerly winds with a few gusts to 30mph along the CO bord...

Fuels: Periods of timely moisture and higher humidity continue to mitigate any fire concerns. Long term fuels are moist with high GSI observed across the state. While there are some areas of dryness, especially in the northwest and north-central, these are limited spatially. Moisture forecasted into mid-week will be isolated in nature, but resulting cloud cover and continued high humidity should limit fire spread potential. Drying is expected into the weekend, however, recovery at night should be good and limit any fire spread to the peak burning period. Crops are also beginning to seasonally cure out. As a result, crops will be the primary fuel carrier until a more widespread freeze/frost or drying event.  Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Growing Season Index:      Forecast: Monday, September 8th Precipitation from southwest to central Kansas with isolated very heavy amounts. This activity will overspread clouds and higher humidity across most of the reg...