KFS Fire Forecast

  Fuels: Widespread moisture continues to suppress any fire weather potential and keep fuel moistures above normal for late November. Widespread 0.7-2.5" of rainfall has occurred over the last several days. Additionally, high humidity continues to be prevalent with good overnight recoveries. Even "dry" days while observe moderated humidity conditions only down to the 30% range or so. As a result, only areas of fine fuels may see some brief availability on the drier days mid-week. Otherwise, greening wheat and moist timber regions will provide significant barriers to spread and keep any fires small. Spotting potential is low with spread rates minimal unless they align with peak winds on Tuesday.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  1   Forecast: Monday, November 24th Low pressure continues to slowly move east out of the state. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with extensive overcast and even areas of fog. No fire weather concerns.   ...

Fuels: Dry period continues across the region with many locations within the state   up to at least 20 days without wetting moisture. As a result, fuels conditions continue to slowly hedge towards increased fire receptivity with upward trends in ERCs and KBDI. Additionally, 1000 hr fuels are also gradually decreasing. This is allowing the landscape to become more supportive of fire activity, especially in areas with continuous fine fuel loading. The potential for holdovers and rekindles are also increasing. However, timber areas continue to hold more moisture despite recent leaf fall and fire behavior is expected to be checked up. Therefore, potential for large fires remains low with quite a few barriers to spread on the landscape. With decreasing sunshine, any elevated fire weather period should remain fairly short. Lastly, an influx of moisture late week will likely bring a reversal in recent trends and decreasing fire potential into the weekend.      Sta...

Fuels: Additional widespread freezes have occurred and now the entire landscape of Kansas has transitioned to winter dormancy. As a result, fine fuel availability will be reliant upon day-to-day fire weather conditions. Additionally, leaf fall continues to progress and is nearing completion. While these leaves will take some time to fully dry out, there is now continuous fuel loading within timber areas which were previous barriers to fire spread. Drier conditions over the last week have begin to reduce soil moisture and coinciding fuels. This will result in gradually increasing fire behavior until moisture is observed. Humidity recoveries remain good which is limiting the overall burn window as the days get shorter. Where more prolonged dry conditions reside, especially in the southwest, fire behavior may be aggressive.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, November 10th High pressure will shift east with southerly flow starting to return for the w...

Fuels: Fine fuels continue trending towards widespread dormancy transition as a more widespread freeze occurred over the weekend. As these fuels become dormant, the daily availability will become more focused on weather conditions and the landscape will become more conducive to fire spread. Additionally, leaf fall and the inclusion of dead grasses will reduce barriers to spread. These factors could develop higher potential for large fires during conducive weather conditions. Heavier fuels remain quite moist with only lingering drought/dryness in the far northeast/eastern portion of the state. Therefore, rekindle potential and extreme fire behavior will be somewhat limited. Regardless, with an increase in dryness expected through the period, fire potential will be gradually increasing. This will be especially enhanced during afternoon periods of windy/warm/dry conditions expected periodically through the week.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monda...

Fuels: Widespread improvements in fuel moisture have occurred due to persistent cloudy, moist conditions. This will result in almost little to no fire behavior to start the period. However, as conditions begin drying out as early as Tuesday in the west (not until Thursday in the east), fine fuels will become more available each afternoon. With additional widespread freezes this week, more vegetation will be forced into dormancy and potentially available into next week as a more prolonged dry period persists. This will also increase fire behavior and potential as a response in ERC and 1000 hr fuels is expected for the next week or so. Periods of wind will increase drying and also enhance fire behavior and spotting potential as the landscape becomes more primed to carry fire continuously.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, October 27th Continued overcast and damp with steady temperatures. A few breaks in the clouds for far west Kansas, otherwise, p...

Fuels: A freeze occurred across far western Kansas over the weekend that is quickly sending live fuels into dormancy. These fuels will become cured over the course of the next week. Additionally, more freezes are possible across west/central Kansas through the week. As a result, fuels will slowly fall into alignment and become more continuous. This is in addition to the cured cropland resulting in less barriers to fire spread. With the introduction of fall wind this week, spread rates will be increased and suppression will be more challenging, especially during peak afternoon burn periods. ERCs still remain below the 50th percentile so fire spread will be limited to the finer fuels/crops that are available. Longer burn periods are also expected this week with only moderate to poor humidity recovery. Late week and into the weekend, with the increase in moisture, fire spread will be mitigated and behavior stunted. With another cold front expected late weekend, more potential freezes are ...