10/27/25 Forecast (10/27 - 11/3)

Fuels:

Widespread improvements in fuel moisture have occurred due to persistent cloudy, moist conditions. This will result in almost little to no fire behavior to start the period. However, as conditions begin drying out as early as Tuesday in the west (not until Thursday in the east), fine fuels will become more available each afternoon. With additional widespread freezes this week, more vegetation will be forced into dormancy and potentially available into next week as a more prolonged dry period persists. This will also increase fire behavior and potential as a response in ERC and 1000 hr fuels is expected for the next week or so. Periods of wind will increase drying and also enhance fire behavior and spotting potential as the landscape becomes more primed to carry fire continuously. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, October 27th

Continued overcast and damp with steady temperatures. A few breaks in the clouds for far west Kansas, otherwise, periods of drizzle and high humidity will persist across the state. No fire weather concerns. 

 


 

Tuesday, October 28th

Elevated fire weather for northwest Kansas during the afternoon.  

Cold front pushes slowly east, reaching just east of the US-75 corridor where it stalls. Sunshine and gusty northerly winds, up to 40mph are expected west of the front. Continued lingering clouds and periods of showers will persist along and east of the front. Some elevated fire weather is possible in far west Kansas where the strong wind will overlap humidity in the 15-20% range. Gusty winds will persist overnight with only moderate recovery for central/west Kansas.

 

Wednesday, October 29th

Breezy northerly winds will persist but become more limited to portions of eastern Kansas as the system gradually pulls off to the east. Humidity will still be low, in the teens for western Kansas, the decreased winds should mitigate any fire weather concerns. Humidity will increase with eastern extent as lingering cloud cover modifies the environment. 

 

   

   

Thursday, October 30th

After widespread freeze for much of west/central Kansas, temperatures increase a few degrees compared to previous days but remain slightly below normal. With drier air in place and afternoon humidity around 20%, slightly higher in the east, widespread sunshine is expected. Winds will be light out of the southwest and shift northwest with a weak front moving west to east during the afternoon.   

 

 

 


Friday, October 31st

Breezy northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures after the passage of the weak front overnight. Winds will reach the 25mph range, especially in eastern Kansas and taper off towards the west. Afternoon humidity only reaching the 25-30% range combined with clouds should mitigate any fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

 


Saturday, November 1st

High pressure will settle over the region with light winds and dry conditions. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with mostly sunny skies.  

 

 


Sunday, November 2nd

High pressure shifts east of the state with west/southwesterly flow increasing. This will funnel in warmer temperatures, likely warmest of the week with breezy west/southwest winds up to 25mph. Drier air will also push into western Kansas with afternoon minimums near 20% along the CO border. A cold front will push into the state from the north with a wind shift late day along the NE border to the northwest. Currently, there isn't an areal overlap of the dry conditions and strongest winds, so near-elevated fire weather is likely but conditions should remain benign. As front slides south overnight, continued windy conditions will result in poor humidity recovery into Monday. 

 

 

 

  

Monday, November 3rd

Elevated fire weather statewide.  

With a dry post-frontal air mass in place, afternoon humidity will drop to around 15-20% statewide despite cooler temperatures. Winds out of the southwest will remain breezy with gusts reaching the 35mph range. This will likely result in widespread elevated fire weather statewide during the afternoon. Winds will lessen after sunset.  

 

 

Chip (10/27/25)

Next forecast: 11/3/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.






















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