11/3/25 Forecast (11/3 - 11/10)

Fuels:

Fine fuels continue trending towards widespread dormancy transition as a more widespread freeze occurred over the weekend. As these fuels become dormant, the daily availability will become more focused on weather conditions and the landscape will become more conducive to fire spread. Additionally, leaf fall and the inclusion of dead grasses will reduce barriers to spread. These factors could develop higher potential for large fires during conducive weather conditions. Heavier fuels remain quite moist with only lingering drought/dryness in the far northeast/eastern portion of the state. Therefore, rekindle potential and extreme fire behavior will be somewhat limited. Regardless, with an increase in dryness expected through the period, fire potential will be gradually increasing. This will be especially enhanced during afternoon periods of windy/warm/dry conditions expected periodically through the week. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:

Monday, November 3rd

Light easterly winds expected across the state with temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday. Afternoon humidity will be moderated for all but north of I-70 where values will briefly reach the mid-20% range. Winds gradually shift southerly overnight and into Tuesday with good overnight recovery. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 4th

Weak cold front will approach the area by late day. Southwesterly winds will increase in most of central and eastern Kansas in advance of the front with gusts to 30mph in the afternoon. A slight increase in clouds and moisture pushing in from the south will keep humidity moderated, with minimums in central/east only dropping into the 40% range. Further west, winds will turn more westerly. This will result in drying/warming conditions with temperatures increasing. Afternoon humidity will drop to the mid-teens, however, winds will be much lighter with gusts only reaching the teens. Front pushes south across the state in the early morning with winds shifting northerly and good overnight recoveries. 

 

Wednesday, November 5th

Breezy north/northeast winds with gusts to near 20mph during the afternoon. Temperatures will reside about 10 degrees cooler. Humidity will also be moderated with afternoon values reaching the 35% range. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

   

   

Thursday, November 6th

Elevated fire weather conditions expected for northwest Kansas.  

Another front will approach the region with a similar pattern to Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds will push in moisture moderating humidity and increasing clouds in central/eastern Kansas. Gusts to 30mph again possible. Further west, slightly stronger (than Tuesday) west/northwest flow will result in some gusts to 20mph in northwest Kansas. With minimum humidity values near 10% in the afternoon, briefly elevated or near-critical fire weather is possible. Front will continue progressing southeast through the evening and result in reduced humidity recovery into Friday. Northwest winds may gust up to 25mph.

 

 

 

Friday, November 7th

Lingering post-frontal northwest winds will keep a slightly downslope component to the wind. This will result in drier conditions despite cooler temperatures. Afternoon humidity values will drop into the upper teens for much of the state. Winds will be light, gusting to 20mph early and then decreasing through the day. Winds shift more southerly overnight and slightly increase into Saturday. This will result in reduced humidity recovery. 

 

 

Saturday, November 8th

Critical fire weather for north of I-70 and far southwest Kansas. 

Elevated fire weather for the remainder of the state.  

Another cold front, stronger in nature will push across the region early Saturday morning. This will result in gusty northwest winds through the day, up to 30mph. Again, despite cooler air, dry conditions will prevail due to the downsloping component of the winds. This will push afternoon humidity down to the 15-20% range for most of the state. With sunny skies, this will result in widespread fire weather conditions with potential for critical fire weather north of I-70. An additional area of critical fire weather may also develop in southwest Kansas where longer term dryness prevails. Winds will gradually weaken with slow to recover humidity into Sunday.  

 

 

 

Sunday, November 9th

High pressure gradually builds in during the afternoon. While northwest winds will be breezy to start the day, gusting to 25mph, they will diminish as the high builds. Temperatures will remain cooler with persistent dry conditions. Afternoon humidity will drop into the mid-teens again for much of the state. However, light winds will limit fire concerns across the state. 

 

 

 

  

Monday, November 10th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas.  

Southerly flow will gradually increase with persistent dry conditions remaining. This will likely result in some overlap in gusts to 20mph in western Kansas with afternoon humidity down to 15% creating elevated fire weather. Further east, winds will be lighter and limit fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Chip (11/3/25)

Next forecast: 11/10/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.