6/18/26 Forecast (6/8 - 6/15)

 

Fuels:

Precipitation has become more scattered over the last week and focused on the eastern portion of the state. With an increase in warm/dry conditions expected for western Kansas, some transition is expected in the cool season grasses. In combination with dormant vegetation still dominating the landscape in these regions, fire behavior is expected to increase. With recent moisture enhancing warm season crops and moderating heavier fuels, there are still quite a few barriers to fire spread. These factors should limit the overall concern for large fire activity during the period. However, with an increase in supportive fire weather conditions, fire suppression may become difficult in hard to access areas or where fuels and wind align.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Weekly Synopsis

Mon, June 8Tue, June 9Wed, June 10Thu, June 11Fri, June 12Sat, June 13Sun, June 14Mon, June 15
Highest Fire Wx Concern
Elevated (SW)
Elevated (NW)Elevated (SW)


 

 

Monday, June 8th

A stationary front draped from southeast to northwest Kansas will be the focal point for storm activity in the afternoon/evening. While some drier air is expected along the OK border, most of the region will be overspread by high moisture content with periodic clouds. No fire weather concerns expected. 

 


 

Tuesday, June 9th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas.  

Temperatures surge to at/near 100F for much of the western half of the state. Much drier air will push in with breezy southwest winds. Afternoon minimum RH will drop to near 10-15%, lowest in southwest Kansas, and when combined with wind gusts to near 30mph will result in elevated fire weather. A few scattered afternoon storms may result in some dry lightning risk as well, especially in areas with more widespread grasslands and dormant vegetation. 

  

 

  

 

 

Wednesday, June 10th

Weak cold front will push into west and central Kansas. This should drop temperatures by about ten degrees compared to Tuesday for areas north of the front. South of the front, along the OK border, triple digit heat is expected. Regardless of temperature, most of the western half of the state will observe humidity around 20% range. However, winds will be rather light and that'll void any fire weather concerns. A few scattered storms in east Kansas. Moisture surges back west overnight with good humidity recovery.

 

 

Thursday, June 11th

Elevated fire weather for west-central and northwest Kansas.  

Weak front will push back east and southward yet again. This will result in similar weather conditions to Wednesday, only winds post-frontal (north of the front) will be out of the north/northeast and gusting up to 30mph. With still low humidity in place, around 20%, this will yield elevated fire weather for west-central and northwest Kansas. 


 

 


 Friday, June 12th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas.  

Cooler temperatures as the front has pushed south of the state. However, winds will shift out of the south with gusts pushing 30mph. A drier airmass in place will result in some elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas where minimum RH will drop to near 20%. Moisture will begin to surge back northward late day and into the overnight as the front moves back north as a warm front. 

 

 

 

 

  

Saturday, June 13th

Frontal boundary will reside across the state. This will be the focal point for rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across the state. While drier conditions are expected north of the front, winds will be rather light and cloud cover should mitigate any fire weather concerns. 


 

 

 

 

 Sunday, June 14th

Warmer temperatures will push briefly into far southwest Kansas ahead of a cold front. However, more episodes of showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front in the evening. This will keep fire weather concerns low. 

 

  

 

 

Monday, June 15th

Much cooler conditions with breezy northwest winds. Humidity should be modified with the post-frontal environment and no fire weather concerns expected. 

 

Chip (6/8/26)

Next forecast: 6/15/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 









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