4/6/26 Forecast (4/6 - 4/13)

Fuels:

Moderation in the fire environment has occurred with recent precipitation in the east. This has not only improved fuel moisture, it also increased green-up greatly resulting in more barriers to fire spread. Further west, for central/west Kansas, a fuels advisory remains in place with most locations anywhere from 50-80+ days without wetting moisture. As a result, very little, if any green-up has occurred and fuels remain critically dry. Extreme fire behavior is possible in these regions until wetting moisture is received, even under benign conditions. Rapid rates of spread will occur with winds increased through mid-week which may result in increased spotting potential along with significant resistance to suppression.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, April 6th

Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas.

Cold front stalls just south of I-70 across the state. Ahead of the cold front, winds will be southerly with above normal temperatures and dry air in place. Afternoon RH will fall into the teens with south winds gusting to nearly 40mph in southwest Kansas. This will result in critical fire weather for southwest Kansas during the afternoon. Further east, winds will be much weaker and humidity moderated. Same goes for north of the front where temperatures will be cooler and winds breezy, gusting to 25mph out of the northeast. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, April 7th

Elevated fire weather for most of west/central Kansas. 

Cold front lifts back northward as a warm front. This overspreads breezy southerly winds across the region with continued warm/dry conditions. Clouds should keep the fire weather somewhat in check with humidity only falling into the 20-25% range across the west 2/3rds of the state. However, when combined with wind gusts to 30mph, some elevated fire weather is expected during the burn period. Winds will persist across the region and turn more southwest overnight. This will result in only moderate humidity recovery.

 

 

 

Wednesday, April 8th

Elevated fire weather for southwest and central Kansas.  

Cold front will push south into northwest and northern Kansas during the day. As a result, cooler/humid conditions with a light northeast wind are expected along the NE border. Further south, southwest winds will persist with temperatures warmer, near 80F. Afternoon humidity will again linger in the low 20% range for central and southwest Kansas resulting in elevated fire weather with southwest winds gusting to 40mph. A few scattered storms in proximity of the front possible in the evening with some small chances of dry lightning. Good overnight recovery into Thursday.

 

 


 Thursday, April 9th

Elevated fire weather for far southwest Kansas.

Southerly flow returns to the whole region as a low pressure starts to take shape in eastern Colorado. This will also result in an increase in moisture for most of Kansas with minimum humidity in the 30% range for all but far southwest Kansas. There, RH will briefly drop into the mid-20% range. With winds near 40mph out of the south, this will result in briefly elevated fire weather. In addition, some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening are expected. This will likely overspread dry fuels and result in some dry lightning potential, at least during onset in the evening.

 

 

 

  

Friday, April 10th 

Cold front pushes south into the state early Friday morning with showers/storms along it. This front will overspread the state with cooler/humid conditions and continued scattered showers/storms. As a result, no fire weather concerns exist at this time. Wetting rains are expected to be spotty and sporadic.

 

 

 Saturday, April 11th 

Temperatures warm back up with a return in southerly flow. However, the air mass will be quite moist with several episodes and/or complexes of storms. This high humidity environment will mitigate any concern for wildfires.  

 

 

Sunday, April 12th

Warm, moist southerly flow continues across the region with showers/storms for central/east Kansas. Southerly winds will gust in the 35-40mph range. Further west, a weak dryline will push into far western Kansas in the afternoon. This will usher in drier air, with afternoon minimum RH near the mid-teens. However, winds will be light behind the dryline mitigating any fire concerns. 

 

 

Monday, April 13th

Elevated fire weather for far west Kansas. 

A more dynamic storm system will develop in eastern Colorado. This will push a stronger dryline into western Kansas with low humidity and gusty southwest winds. With winds possibly approaching the 40mph range, at least elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Depending on timing/strength of the system, fire weather conditions may spread further east. East of the dryline, some severe storms are possible with wetting rains. 

 

Chip (4/6/26)

Next forecast: 4/13/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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