4/13/26 Forecast (4/13 - 4/20)

Fuels:

Moisture has occurred over the last week for a good portion of the state. Still, amounts were fairly low for the west/central outside of isolated areas. While the higher humidity has moderated conditions, a more prolonged and impactful event is needed to support slowing fire season in the central and west. As a result, fuels will be subject to rapid drying this week with a persistent dryline setup daily. While there has been some greenup, observations and GSI support a fire landscape capable of large fires. Dormant fuels will be capable of higher end fire behavior, especially in the areas that missed precipitation. A fuels advisory remains in place for all of western and much of central Kansas.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

 

 

Monday, April 13th

Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas from Greeley Co, east to Barton Co, south to Barber, and southwestward. 

After poor humidity recovery last night, much of the western half of the state will reside behind a dryline. As a result, afternoon humidity will fall into the single digits for southwest Kansas. Combined with winds gusting to nearly 40mph, will result in critical fire weather. Winds will be lighter, north of a Greeley to Barton Co line and limit fire weather somewhat despite dry conditions. Higher humidity will accompany breezy southerly winds east of US-81, limiting fire weather concerns there. Dryline will retreat westward some overnight with poor humidity recovery for far western Kansas again into Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, April 14th

Critical fire weather for most of southwest Kansas. 

Dryline pushes further east than Monday, likely residing along the I-35 corridor. Humidity won't be as low as Monday with lowest values still expected in southwest Kansas, around the 10-15% range. Minimum humidity will be more modified with eastern extent, likely around 30% along the dryline. Breezy southwest winds will continue for most of the state with gusts up to 40mph, strongest south of US-50. This will result in critical fire weather again for the southwest and portions of northwest. A weak cold front will shift winds northwest early evening. A few showers and perhaps an isolated dry lightning threat is possible before midnight. Improved humidity recovery, moderate at least for western Kansas. 

 

 

 

Wednesday, April 15th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas.  

Light northwest winds early in the day will transition back to westerly in the afternoon for all but far east Kansas as the dryline will again be around the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with humidity lowest in the far southwest again, in the low teens. With lighter winds, only elevated fire weather is expected with a few gusts to 25mph likely in southern Kansas. Otherwise, mostly quiet fire weather conditions with reduced humidity recovery into Thursday in the west. 

 

 


 Thursday, April 16th

Critical fire weather for western Kansas.

Dryline will setup a bit further west than previous days, likely along the US-81 corridor (or in close proximity). Winds will shift southerly with gusts to 35mph possible. With drier conditions persisting to the west of the dryline, humidity possibly as low as the single digits again, critical fire weather is expected to the west of the dryline. Additionally, days of dry conditions are likely to culminate into higher potential for alignment in the fire environment. Higher humidity to the east of the dryline will keep conditions in check. Again, poor overnight recovery for west Kansas into Friday. This time however, breezy winds may continue with elevated fire weather persisting overnight.

 

 

  

Friday, April 17th 

Critical to localized extreme fire weather expected from southwest into north-central Kansas. 

A significant storm system will develop across the central Plains during the day Friday. This will again continue with a dryline in central Kansas, perhaps slightly further west than previous days. Additionally, a strong cold front will enter the northwest by mid-afternoon and progress southward into the evening. A dry slot will develop from southwest Kansas, potentially reaching as far north/east as north-central Kansas during the afternoon. There, humidity may fall to as low as the single digits with wind gusts potentially up to 50mph. This may result in extreme fire weather, especially considering the frontal passage may cross during, or just after peak burn period. A few dry lightning strikes are possible along the cold front. Northwest winds will persist into the overnight with moderate humidity recovery into Saturday. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible along and east of the dryline.

 

 

 

 Saturday, April 18th 

Elevated fire weather for west Kansas. 

Much cooler, post-frontal conditions statewide. Breezy north/northwest winds will persist with some afternoon gusts to 35mph. Despite closer to normal temperatures, the air mass will be fairly dry with afternoon RH, especially west of US-81 in the 20% range. This will develop localized elevated fire weather in western Kansas. Moderate to good overnight recovery into Sunday.

 

 

 

Sunday, April 19th

Light southerly flow returns with temperatures warming back up. While winds are expected to be light during the burn period, they will increase overnight and into Monday out of the south. Gusts up to 35mph are likely into Monday as strong return flow develops. Despite dry conditions with minimum RH in the mid-teens, light wind during the afternoon will keep fire concerns low. Moderate to poor overnight recovery expected into Monday.

 

 

 

Monday, April 20th

Elevated fire weather for far west Kansas. 

A dryline again pushes into western Kansas and is the eastern extent of potentially increased fire weather conditions along and just east of the Colorado border. Temperatures much warmer with wind gusts out of the south, southwest up to 35mph. A few scattered storms are possible as well with some dry lightning strikes a potential concern. Poor recovery into early Tuesday along the CO border. Fire weather potential appears likely to continue for the west into mid-week.

 

Chip (4/13/26)

Next forecast: 4/20/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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