3/31/26 Forecast (3/31 - 4/6)

Fuels:

Recent increases in overnight humidity recovery and some areas of moisture have marginally improved fuels in some locations, especially east. However, more prolonged dry conditions are taking hold with ERCs remaining consistent and 1000 hr fuels drying further. Burn periods have been slightly shorter and fine fuels needing some additional drying for extreme behavior. Timber areas are remaining dry and will not be an effective barrier to spread. As moisture this period begins to increase in the east, some improvements in the fire landscape are expected. This will also spur greenup to increase again after being slowed by the freeze several weeks ago. Further west, the driest areas in the state, some without wetting moisture for three months, will be favored to remain dry. As a result, extreme fire growth and large fire potential will remain on the landscape. Thus a fuels advisory remains in place. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

NOTE: FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS ARE NOT RELIABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING BECAUSE OF FEMS MAINTENANCE.  

Forecast:

Tuesday, March 31st

A cold front will push south into the state and stall in vicinity of the Flint Hills. This will bring marginally cooler air briefly for most of the state and breezy northerly winds. Along and south of the front, above normal temperatures will remain with breezy southerly winds. Despite gusts potentially up to  30mph, RH will only fall to the 30% range. This will limit fire weather concerns. Moisture will increase from the south overnight as the front lifts back north as a warm front. 

 

    

 

 

Wednesday, April 1st

Front lifts north to near the NE border. North of the front, cooler, moist conditions with precipitation. South of the front, temperatures will warm dramatically with an influx of moisture. Minimum humidity will only fall to the 40% range in southwest Kansas. Southerly winds may gust up to 25mph. Several episodes of thunderstorms expected for central/east Kansas with a later round for the entire state. This will limit fire weather concerns for the region.

 

 

 Thursday, April 2nd

Elevated fire weather along the CO border.

A cold front pushes east across the state early in the morning shifting winds northwest. As the day progresses, winds shift south and increase in a quick developing return flow. This will result in gusts to 30mph along the CO border. It will also result in warming temperatures into the mid-to-upper 70s, resulting in RH 25% or less for the western third of the state. Winds then shift southeast across central/east Kansas overnight. A dryline will push into western Kansas resulting in continued warm temperatures and poor humidity recovery, extending the burn period into Friday.

 

 

 

  

Friday, April 3rd 

Elevated fire weather for most of west and central Kansas.

A severe weather episode is expected in eastern Kansas during the afternoon hours as a low tracks right over Kansas. This will result in a cold front entering the western portion of the state in the afternoon with a northerly wind shift and cooler temperatures. However, a very dry air mass will result in afternoon minimum RH in the 15% range. This, combined with wind gusts to 40mph will result in elevated fire weather. A narrow ribbon of very warm/dry air will move east ahead of the front and behind the dryline. While RH will quickly drop to 20% and southwest winds may gust to 30mph. The wind shift along the front will be a concern if any fires start within this region early in the day. Moderate recovery expected for the west and breezy northwest winds will continue and expand across the state. 

 

 Saturday, April 4th 

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas. 

Persistent northwest flow will persist across the region with cooler temperatures. Winds will potentially gust up to 45mph during the afternoon. Minimum humidity will reside in the 25% range in the southwest and gradually increase with northeastward extent. Good overnight recovery into Sunday.

 

 

Sunday, April 5th

High pressure builds in across the region with light northerly wind shifting southerly late in the day. Warmer air will push northward with this wind shift for the western half of the state. This will combine with dry air to result in minimum RH in the 10-15% range. However, winds should remain light enough to mitigate fire weather concerns.  

 

Monday, April 6th

A cold front will push south into the state early morning. This will result in cooler, high humidity conditions for most of the central/east. Further west, in southwest Kansas, the front will stall with warmer drier conditions to the southwest of the front. Humidity will be lower, but somewhat moderated, with minimum values in the 20% range in this region. Winds will be converge along the front, with gusts to 25mph south of the front (southerly) and 35mph (northerly) north of the front. Elevated fire weather is possible in the southwest but will depend on the southern extent of the cold front. 

 

Chip (3/31/26)

Next forecast: 4/6/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.