3/23/26 Forecast (3/23 - 3/30)

Fuels:

With the intense heat last week and very dry conditions, ERCs increased greatly yielding percentiles in the 75-90th range, highest in the west. As a result of this increased dryness, fuel receptivity is extreme and behavior is greatly increased. Suppression difficulty will be high until substantial moisture arrives, even during benign conditions. Overnight recoveries are expected to be slightly higher this week with not quite as low of afternoon humidity. This should marginally improve the landscape and aid in limiting critical burn windows. However, widespread moisture is not in the forecast until perhaps next week. Thus, expect continued extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread regardless of weather conditions. Lastly, green-up is starting to increase again in the wake of last week's freeze. Values are still below 50%  however, and areas of greening cool season vegetation will not likely be an effective barrier to spread. Especially if there is freeze burn/kill mixed within. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 23rd

Elevated fire weather today for west of US-283. 

Southerly return flow will develop this afternoon across far west Kansas with winds gusting to near 35mph at times. Combined with humidity around 20%, will result in elevated fire weather. Further east, winds will be more east/southeast and lighter. Humidity will be marginally better with afternoon minimums in the 25-30% range. Periodic clouds will keep conditions more moderated. Moderate humidity recovery in the southeast with lingering clouds, good elsewhere. 

 

    

 

 

Tuesday, March 24th

Elevated fire weather for central Kansas. 

Southerly return flow will shift east into central Kansas. While the entire area will see southerly winds, strongest gusts slightly weaker than yesterday, up to 25mph will focus in the central area of the state. With warming temperatures, afternoon humidity will fall into the mid-20% range for the entire region. However, moisture will increase from the south late for the eastern half of the state. This will increase late day humidity and increase overnight recovery for all but far west Kansas. 

 

 



 Wednesday, March 25th

Elevated fire weather statewide.  

Downslope westerly winds will push into most of the state during the afternoon with a weak dryline. This will result in adiabatic warming/drying with humidity down in the teens for all but southeast Kansas. Winds up to 20mph may develop elevated fire weather for these regions. In the southeast, winds will be more southwesterly with gusts to near 30mph. This will result in elevated, to near-critical conditions despite humidity only falling into the low 20% range.  Poor humidity recovery for west/central Kansas, good in the east. 

 

 

 

 

 Thursday, March 26th

Critical fire weather statewide. 

Winds turn southwesterly and increase for the entire state. Gusts to near 40mph are expected by the afternoon as they increase with the approach of a cold front. Front will enter the region in the late morning and push southward during the burn period. This will shift winds to the north with gusts still up to 40mph. Humidity ahead, along and behind the front will remain critically low with single digits in the southwest, and in the teens to near 20% with eastward extend. A few stray showers/storms possible in far east Kansas but wetting potential appears limited to non-existent. Breezy winds will shift northeast overnight with only moderate humidity recovery into Friday.

 

 

 

  

Friday, March 27th 

Elevated fire weather statewide.

Breezy north/northeast winds will continue across the state with gusts up to 30mph. Despite temperatures cooler, afternoon humidity around 20% for most of the region will result in elevated fire weather. Winds will turn east/southeast late in the day and persist overnight, especially in the western third of the state. As a result, poor humidity recovery is expected into Saturday morning. . 

 

 

 

Saturday, March 28th 

Elevated fire weather for the western half of Kansas. 

Again, return southerly flow develops across the High Plains. With winds gusting to 30-35mph and RH down to the 10-15% range, elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected. Further east, winds will be lighter but very dry conditions expected with similar humidity. Southerly winds persist and expand eastward overnight with gusts to 30 for the entire state. This will result in poor humidity recovery and a continuous extended burn period into Sunday. 

 

 

 

Sunday, March 29th

Elevated fire weather for all but northwest Kansas.  

South/southwest return flow will persist across the state with gusts to 35-40mph. Winds will be lighter in the northwest. A brief surge in moisture will moderate humidity slightly, with minimum humidity in the 20-30% range. However, with dry fuels and wind, fire weather will be elevated during the burn period. Moisture will gradually increase overnight with humidity recovery improved into Monday despite breezy southerly winds persisting. 

 

 

 

Monday, March 30th

Persistent southwest flow as a low pressure develops in eastern Colorado. A weak dryline will push into western Kansas during the afternoon. As a result, some elevated to near-critical fire weather is likely along and just east of the CO border where humidity in the 10-15% range and southwest winds to 25mph are expected. While southerly flow will be stronger, gusting to 30mph in central/east Kansas, an increase of moisture will limit fire weather concerns. 

 

Chip (3/23/26)

Next forecast: 3/30/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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