3/2/26 Forecast (3/2 - 3/9)

Fuels:

Recent moisture, humidity and cloud cover have improved the fuel landscape for central and eastern Kansas the last day or so. Further west, the western 1/3 of the state remains very dry with fuels available. This will be the focus through the period as ERCs will reside around the 75th percentile and potentially increase by Friday. Result will be a fire environment capable of carrying fire efficiently with little resistance to spread. The only caveat to large fire activity in this region will be potency of overnight humidity recovery, precipitation (if any) that may occur and overall burn period conditions. Additionally, barriers to spread such as timber areas will provide little buffer with fire carrying through them at higher than normal rates of spread with complete consumption. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 2nd

High humidity and overcast skies expected for most of the state. Periods of drizzle also possible. The one exception is far western Kansas where the sun will poke out and humidity may fall into the upper-20% range. Highest probability will be in far southwest Kansas where temperatures may briefly hit 70F. Winds may gust briefly up to 30mph but fire weather concerns will remain minimal.  

    

 

 

Tuesday, March 3rd

A cold front pushes across the state during the morning with cooler temperatures and high humidity. Winds will be out of the north with some gusts to 20mph. Periods of drizzle and/or rain showers likely for eastern/central Kansas. Ahead of the front there may be some brief dryness along with warmer temperatures in far southwest Kansas along the OK border. However, fire weather is expected to be minimal. 

 

 Wednesday, March 4th

Clouds erode from west to east during the day. This will allow temperatures to increase into the 60s with humidity falling to the upper 20% range for most of central/west Kansas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with continued moderate humidity in the east where lingering rain showers and stubborn clouds will persist. Winds will remain rather light with strongest gusts only to 15mph or so from the west. 

 

 

 

 

 Thursday, March 5th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border.

Southerly return flow develops with warmer conditions surging northward. This will result in temperatures near 70F. Moisture will push northward but the amount is a bit uncertain at this time. It seems likely that increasing moisture will limit lowest afternoon humidity to along the CO border where minimums may reach the mid-teens in the afternoon. Further east, minimum humidity will only reach the 30% range. Southerly winds will gust up to 40mph for much of central and western Kansas. This will develop at least elevated fire weather along the CO border in the afternoon. Conditions will shift west overnight, but it seems a dryline will stall just east of the CO line with poor humidity recovery into Friday.  

 

 

 

Friday, March 6th 

Elevated fire weather west of a Norton to Clark Co line. 

Critical fire weather likely from Greeley to Meade Co and southwestward. 

A stronger low pressure system will take shape in southern Nebraska and drag a dryline east into western Kansas. This will overspread gusting southwest winds, potentially to 50mph in the afternoon. With much warmer/drier conditions, minimum humidity as low as the single digits, this will result in a potential Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak scenario across southwest Kansas. As a result, at least critical fire weather is expected. Further north/east, humidity won't be quite as low and only elevate fire weather is expected. A potent cold front will cross the region late in the afternoon, shifting winds to the northwest and increasing humidity. Scattered showers/storms are possible along the front and along/east of the dryline. There is also a small dry lightning concern along the front late in the day in northwest Kansas. 

 

 

 

 

 Saturday, March 7th

Despite being post-frontal, temperatures will still be running a few degrees warmer than normal. Light northerly winds expected with a drier air mass in place. Afternoon RH will fall into the mid-to-upper 20% range in the afternoon. Lack of wind will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 

 

  

Sunday, March 8th

Winds shift westerly and slightly increase with afternoon gusts near 20mph statewide. This will allow for downsloping winds with warmer/drier conditions. Temperatures will push about 20 degrees warmer with highs in the 70s. Afternoon humidity will fall to around 20% for the entire region. Some areas of borderline elevated fire weather is possible in the afternoon. Spatial and temporal confidence in more widespread fire concerns remain minimal with conditions slow to improve with only moderate humidity recovery into Monday. 

 

 

 

Monday, March 9th

Winds shift southerly with some afternoon gusts near 30mph in a classic return flow event. Should there be a lot of prescribed fire on the landscape from the weekend, fire activity will likely increase with an increase in fire weather expected. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal. Humidity will increase in the afternoon from south to north. This will bump up RH into the 30% range along the OK border and in the southern Flint Hills. Humidity will increase overnight as southerly winds persist into Tuesday.

 

Chip (3/2/26)

Next forecast: 3/5/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.