2/23/26 Forecast (2/23 - 3/2)

 

Fuels:

Very light snow over the weekend brought enough timely moisture to portions of west/central Kansas to keep surface fuels moist. With mostly dry conditions outside of small chances of rain/snow weighted towards east Kansas overnight into Thursday and again on Sunday, overall drying is anticipated this week - especially when combined with a return of warmer than normal temperatures. Fine fuels will cure out daily with lower afternoon humidity but heavier fuels remain fairly moist. As a result, areas such as timber and heavy dense fuel loading will not fully consume and inhibit fire spread. This will provide barriers on the landscape and limit overall fire growth, even during afternoon burn periods. An exception to this may be along the OK border where recent moisture missed and thus, heavier 100 and 1000 hour fuels are slightly drier. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, February 23th

Elevated fire weather along the OK border from Morton to Barber Co.

After some cooler days (and snowfall) temperatures start slowly rebounding in the southwest portion of the state. This will push warmer/drier air into southwest Kansas along the OK border with afternoon humidity down to about 20%. This region will experience afternoon breezy winds gusting to 25mph. Cooler conditions will reside for the remainder of the state with dry conditions (RH in the 15-20% range), however, winds will be light. Southwest winds will gradually increase and expand across the remainder of the region overnight. This will result in only moderate humidity recovery into Tuesday.

    

 

 

Tuesday, February 24th

Elevated fire weather for east of I-35. 

Breezy return flow, ushering warmer temperatures will shift east into eastern Kansas. Winds will slacken across west/central Kansas during the day, however, eastern Kansas will continue to gust to near 35mph east of I-35. While temperatures are above normal a slight increase in moisture will moderate humidity to the 25-30% range where winds remain. Lower RH expected in central/west. Winds diminish after sunset with good humidity recovery statewide. 

 Wednesday, February 25th

Elevated fire weather for northwest Kansas.  

A cold front will push into northwest Kansas during the afternoon. Just ahead of the front, winds will turn southwest and increase with a few gusts to 30mph. These winds will shift to the northwest and persist into the evening.The front will progress southward, reaching the OK border by midnight with weakening winds. A few showers possible across eastern Kansas into Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 Thursday, February 26th

 Elevated fire weather along and east of I-35.  

Mostly quiet conditions across the region as temperatures remain well above normal despite the recent front. Some lingering breezy winds in eastern Kansas during the early afternoon. Some gusts to 25mph are possible out of the north/northwest. Dry conditions statewide with the highest humidity in the east, around 30% with drier conditions to the west. Light westerly wind will develop late day in western Kansas and slowly increase overnight. This will allow for only moderate humidity recovery into Friday.

 

 

 

 

Friday, February 27th 

Elevated fire weather likely for eastern Kansas, again, along/east of I-35. 

A weak cold front will push into the northwest portion of the state with light northwest winds, slightly drier air (minimum RH in the 10-15% range) and persistent above normal temperatures. Further east, the westerly winds will turn southwest with a few gusts to 25mph during the afternoon. Humidity will slightly increase with afternoon minimums here around 25%. This will likely develop elevated fire weather again for eastern Kansas during the afternoon. 

 

 

 

 Saturday, February 28th

A backdoor cold front will push into the region as a stronger storm system tries to take shape to the south of Kansas. Winds will be generally north and breezy, with gusts to 20-25mph. Despite the cold front, warm and dry conditions will persist with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and minimum RH around 15-20%. This will likely develop fairly widespread but borderline elevated fire weather conditions. A few late day showers possible across far south/east Kansas into Sunday with the temperature falling.

 

  

Sunday, March 1st

Much colder with light east/northeast winds. Humidity will be markedly increased with minimums mostly in the 40-50% range. Periods of clouds expected with a few scattered rain and/or snow showers during the afternoon in the east and overnight in the west. No fire weather concerns. 

 

Monday, March 2nd

Temperatures rebound slightly as clouds shift eastwards late morning. Winds shift more southerly in weak return flow. Moisture will remain moderated however, with minimum RH only down to about 30%. No fire weather concerns.  

 

Chip (2/23/26)

Next forecast: 3/2/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.