10/13/25 Forecast (10/13 - 10/20)

 

Fuels:

 Very slowly, fine fuels across the region are sliding into dormancy due to shorter days. Until a widespread freeze, most fuels will be fairly prohibitive to fire spread. Cured crops will remain the most available fuel in the region during periods of warm, dry and sunny conditions. Heavier fuels remain quite moist with good overnight recoveries, periods of clouds and moisture. Until a more robust dry period, fire behavior will be moderated and fairly easy to suppress. Drought indices, especially in the eastern part of the state are starting to slowly rise as more long term drought is becoming established. This may present suppression issues when short term drying aligns, resulting in a dramatic increase in behavior. However, until a frost/freeze occurs and drier overall conditions emerge, fire behavior will be largely checked up. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, October 13th

Much cooler temperatures and lighter winds than previous days. Widespread cloud cover and high humidity with some precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns. 


 

 

Tuesday, October 14th

Periods of clouds and showers will continue with a moderating effect on temperatures for most of the state. Some areas of sun may develop in the late afternoon. Overall, humidity will struggle to drop below 40% for most of the state. An increase in southerly winds is expected across western Kansas with gusts to 20mph.   


 

 


Wednesday, October 15th

Scattered showers and storms expected in the early morning, eventually tapering off by mid-day. Temperatures will rise, about ten degrees compared to previous days with increased afternoon sunshine. As a result, humidity will fall to near the mid-30% range. Winds will be breezy out of the south with gusts again to near 30mph mainly along the CO border. 

 

  

 

   

Thursday, October 16th

Winds will expand in coverage with most of central and western Kansas observing gusts to 30mph out of the south during the afternoon. Skies will be sunny for much of central/east Kansas with some showers entering far western Kansas late in the day. These will be along a frontal system that will slowly push eastward through the evening/overnight. Where sun prevails, humidity will fall into the upper 20% range. This could develop some borderline elevated fire weather briefly in the late afternoon.  

 

 

 


Friday, October 17th

As the front progresses east, likely reaching the Flint Hills by mid-morning, showers and clouds will align along the boundary. Breezy southwesterly winds ahead (to the east) and along the front will persist, turning westerly and weakening post-frontal. The front will linger in far southeast Kansas in the afternoon with another, more prevalent round of showers/storms. Further west/north, temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler with light westerly winds. Despite a drier air mass, light winds will mitigate fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

 


Saturday, October 18th

A reinforcing cold front will push into the state from the north. It'll spread southward through the day with much colder air, and increasing clouds. Some showers are possible for northern Kansas. Gusty north winds to 35mph are expected behind the front. 

 

 


 

Sunday, October 19th

Cooler conditions will persist with winds shifting southerly. A few afternoon gusts will reach the 20mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will rise a few degrees warmer than Saturday with lower humidity, in the 15-20% range across the region. 

 

 

  

Monday, October 20th

Winds continue and slightly increase with a few gusts to 30mph. Temperatures warm back towards the 80s. The biggest limitation will be how much moisture will push into the region from the south. Additionally, if clouds also increase, humidity will be mitigated. If not and drier conditions emerge, some elevated fire weather is possible before the next system approaches on Tuesday.  

 

 

Chip (10/13/25)

Next forecast: 10/20/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.




















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