9/22/25 Forecast (9/22 - 9/29)

 Fuels:

Fuels remain very wet as high humidity persists with periods of rainfall. Even with above normal temperatures persisting, conditions will remain mostly unreceptive to fire through the period. While most the landscape consists of green/active vegetation, some photo-sensitive and agricultural crops are beginning to transition to dormancy with shorter days. Therefore, some vegetation will be available if drier conditions are observed, however, no windows of opportunity are expected. Otherwise, heavy fuels remain under the 10%-tile for the period and will require extensive drying before becoming available for fire.

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, September 22nd

Mostly dry conditions expected during the day with high humidity values. Storms will develop late afternoon in western Kansas and expand coverage across most of the state into Tuesday morning. Some severe weather and heavy rain possible with no fire weather concerns.  

 

 

 

Tuesday, September 23rd

Multiple episodes of showers and thunderstorms as tropical moisture interacts with a slow moving cold front. Widespread moisture expected with no fire weather concerns.   

 

 



Wednesday, September 24th

Showers and storms continue with focus transitioning more to the eastern portion of the state. Below average temperatures in the afternoon with high humidity.

 

 

 

  

Thursday, September 25th

System finally pushes east with mostly sunny skies. Light west wind will allow drier air to briefly push into western Kansas with some afternoon RH values falling into the 35-40% range. Winds will remain light and no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 


Friday, September 26th

Winds shift more southwesterly and increase with a few gusts to 15mph. This will allow for a second day of drier air to reside across the region with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will also warm into the mid-to-upper 80s, up about 10F from previous days. 

 

 

 


Saturday, September 27th

Persistent conditions with winds becoming more easterly. Clouds increase in the west late-day with another push of monsoonal moisture trying to move into the Plains. Quiet fire weather continues.  

 

 


 

Sunday, September 28th

Winds shift more southerly with increasing moisture and humidity as weak monsoonal push arrives to the region. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. 

 

  

Monday, September 29th

Moisture continues to stream overhead from the southwest providing scattered showers and storms along with cloud cover. High humidity despite occasional breezy south wind will keep fire weather in check. 

 

 

Chip (9/22/25)

Next forecast: 9/29/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

















Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

Image
 Fuels: Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread.    Weekly Statewide PL: ~3 Onset GSI:   Forecast: Monday, March 10th Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward ...
Read more

3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Image
Fuels:  Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-ce...
Read more