9/15/25 Forecast (9/15 - 9/22)

 Fuels:

Despite some drier and warmer conditions last week, fuels remain below average and mostly unsupportive of carrying fire. Only cured fuels on the Kansas landscape are dormant crops. Otherwise, Growing Season Index is 90% or higher for but far west Kansas. With periods of showers/storms expected daily through the week, the fuel landscape will remain steady with no drastic changes expected. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, September 15th

Driest day of the week with temperatures in the mid-80s. Afternoon humidity will remain high with values only falling into the upper 30% range. Light southerly winds. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, September 16th

Afternoon showers and storms develop, especially along and north of I-70. With widespread clouds and higher humidity, temperatures will reside a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Light southerly winds with a few gusts to 30mph along the CO border.    

 

 



Wednesday, September 17th

Weak and slow moving low pressure will move into the central Plains resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Isolated areas of heavy rains exceeding 1-2". No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

  

Thursday, September 18th

 Weak low shifts into the northern Plains with a weak cold front extending across eastern Kansas. This will shift the main focus of thunderstorm activity towards the eastern half of the state. Cooler temperatures will push into western Kansas with slightly drier air. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 


Friday, September 19th

A few thunderstorms along a weak front in northwest Kansas during the afternoon. Otherwise, conditions dry out for most of the state as weak high pressure tries to build in. Temperatures near 80F, light southwest winds and minimum humidity falling compared to previous days, near 30%. 

 

 

 


Saturday, September 20th

Storms along the weak front from Friday will gradually push eastward overnight as the front pivots east. Additional storm development likely in southeast Kansas in the afternoon. Otherwise, drier air pushes in from the northwest with temperatures persistent in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. 

 

 


 

Sunday, September 21st

Light southerly winds with temperatures/humidity steady compared to previous days. Lingering upper level moisture will result in some scattered showers/storms in the afternoon but overall most locations should remain dry.


 

  

Monday, September 22nd

A much stronger cold front arrives in the early hours of Monday. This will be the focal point for stronger storms along the front and pushing off to the east. In the wake of the front across west Kansas, much cooler/drier air will push in from the northwest. 

 

 

Chip (9/15/25)

Next forecast: 9/22/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.
















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