5/1/25 Forecast (5/1 - 5/8)

 Fuels:

Continued episodes of precipitation and higher humidity are still improving the fuels status across the state. Significant reduction in fire behavior is expected through the forecast period as a result. While some dormant fuels may be available briefly on drier afternoons, burn periods will be limited by high overnight humidity. The spread of fire is expected to be very limited with widespread green-up across the landscape and any fire will be easy to suppress. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 1

 

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

 

Forecast:

Thursday, May 1st

Light northwest winds across the area with a few scattered showers in eastern Kansas. Temperatures slightly below normal with afternoon minimum humidity in the 40%, mainly in western Kansas.

 

 

 

Friday, May 2nd

 Another reinforcing cold front will increase winds out of the north with a few gusts to 25mph statewide. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday with a few scattered showers again for eastern Kansas. Slightly drier air in the west with afternoon minimum humidity in the upper 20% range. Some brief elevated fire weather is possible in far southwest Kansas where precipitation has been lacking. 


Saturday, May 3rd

Overall drier conditions statewide with afternoon temperatures warmer than the previous few days. Widespread sun will result in better mixing and winds gradually shifting southerly and increasing late day. A few gusts to 25mph are possible in the west. Humidity will drop into the low 20% range for western Kansas which could briefly yield some elevated fire weather in southwest Kansas late afternoon. 


 

Sunday, May 4th

Southeast winds increase through the day. A few gusts to 30mph are possible for southwest Kansas. Lower humidity may linger for southwest Kansas and result in brief elevated fire weather in the afternoon. However, moisture will increase by the evening with RH increasing from the mid-20% range to the mid-40% range. This will limit fire weather concerns overall.  


Monday, May 5th

Showers/thunderstorms will develop in southwest Kansas late afternoon and expand eastward. Overall much higher humidity with increasing clouds. Breezy southerly winds.


 

Tuesday, May 6th

Much more widespread precipitation expanding north/east across the state from southwest Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 


 

Wednesday, May 7th

Widespread shower/storm activity as a cut-off low lingers to the southwest of Kansas. This will continue funneling moisture into the state and alleviating fire weather concerns.  


Thursday, May 8th

Another round of storms spread across the region with wetting rain potential. Persistent pattern continues as the blocked pattern remains across the US.

 

Chip (5/1/25)

Next forecast: 5/5/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


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