4/3/25 Forecast (4/3 - 4/10)

 Fuels: 

Improved humidity and observed precipitation for all but southwest and north-central have moderated the fire environment statewide. A dramatic increase in green-up has occurred where rainfall in central and eastern Kansas. Fire spread is going to be greatly inhibited by timber stands and barriers of green grass for many locations except where tall dormant grasses are still dominant. Forecasted moisture should also result in fuel moisture improvements in the southwest into the weekend. The one exception is far north-central Kansas where little moisture is forecasted. This area will remain fairly dry with fuels more supportive of carrying fire. However, with atmospheric moisture increased, behavior will be subdued and suppression challenges will be minimal. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

 

Growing Season Index:

 


Forecast:

Thursday, April 3rd

Cloud cover will push north into the state with precipitation expected in western and southeast Kansas. Moderated humidity, cooler temperatures and light winds will void any fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Friday, April 4th

Another push of cloud cover and precipitation will encompass most of the state. Cooler weather will persist with a slight increase in northerly winds. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Saturday, April 5th

Precipitation exits to the east in the morning with an increase in sunshine. A drier air mass pushes in from the north with widespread afternoon humidity near 30%. Some northerly wind gusts to 25mph possible, especially in the southeast. Still, with recent moisture, no fire weather concerns are expected. 

 

 


Sunday, April 6th

High pressure dominates the region with light winds. Freezing temperatures possible for much of the state to start the day with temperatures warming into the mid-50s. This dry air will allow afternoon humidity down to the mid-20% range. Light winds will keep fire concerns minimal. 

 


Monday, April 7th

Temperatures will increase a few degrees with continued drier air in place. Light northerly winds are expected but should remain under concern level. No fire weather issues. 

 

 


Tuesday, April 8th

A weak system will approach the area with an increase in southerly winds. Some gusts to 30mph are possible in the afternoon. However, an increase in moisture and cloud cover will moderate fire weather concerns despite warming temperatures. A weak cold front is expected overnight into Wednesday with a wind shift to the northwest. 

 

 

Wednesday, April 9th

Elevated fire weather for northwest/north-central Kansas. 

Breezy northwest winds are expected across the region with gusts to 30mph. Despite a slightly cooler air mass, temperatures will be above normal. Afternoon humidity will drop into the 20% range for the western half of the state. With the windy conditions, elevated fire weather is possible in the northwest/central area of the state that missed recent moisture events. 

 

 

Thursday, April 10th

Temperatures warm to near 80F with high pressure dominating. This will ease winds with light northerlies becoming light/variable in the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon humidity in the 20% range. 

 

Chip (4/3/25)

Next update 4/7/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

 

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