3/27/25 Forecast (3/27 - 4/3)

 Fuels:

Conditions remain conducive for continued drying of the fuel landscape. Many locations in central/west Kansas have gone over 100 days since 0.25" of moisture. This will result in increased fire behavior and resistance to suppression. In combination with the above normal fuel loading for portions of the southwest and south-central, a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory has been issued. For the Flint Hills, some moisture has been observed over the last week and will help slow fire spread in timber areas and improve greenup. Greenup has continued to progress north/westward with trees beginning to leaf out in southern Kansas. This will also gradually mitigate the fire landscape and reduce large fire potential where cool season grasses are exposed and/or wheat fields exist.

 

Statewide preparedness level: 3

 

Growing season index: 

 

 

Forecast: 

Thursday, March 27th

Elevated fire weather for southwest and central Kansas. 

Southwesterly winds will increase south of I-70 today with afternoon gusts near 40mph. Some gradual moisture increase is expected for east of US-81, further west, minimum humidity will drop into the teens. Where this overlaps with strongest winds in central/southwest Kansas, elevated fire weather exists. This will be especially a concern for any prescribed hold-over fires from Wednesday. Winds persist overnight with poor humidity recovery into Friday for western Kansas. 


 

Friday, March 28th

Elevated fire weather for west of US-183.

Winds shift more southerly and persist with afternoon gusts again near 40mph. Moisture will continue to increase with moderated humidity for central and eastern Kansas. West of US-183, afternoon minimums will approach the 10-15% range. This will result in elevated fire weather from there to the CO border. Otherwise, fire weather concerns will be mitigated for the majority of the state.  Poor humidity is again expected for far western Kansas into Saturday.


 

Saturday, March 29th

Elevated fire weather west of US-81. 

A low pressure system will track east across the state. This will push a dryline and associated cold front from west to east through the burn period. This will shift a corridor of dry conditions, with humidity in the 10-15% range across western and central Kansas during the day. This would result in critical fire weather normally, however, winds won't be overly strong with only gusts in the mid-20% range. Shifting winds from southwest-to-west-to-northwest-to-north for west/central Kansas during the day will be the biggest concern. Scattered showers/storms expected for eastern Kansas. 


Sunday, March 30th

Breezy post-frontal air mass in place with wind gusts to 40mph possible out of the north. However, clouds, lingering moisture and moderated humidity is expected to moderate the fire environment. No fire weather concerns. 


 

 Monday, March 31st

A cold start to the day. High pressure moves over the state with winds shifting from northerly to southerly. Despite a dry air mass, cooler temperatures should keep humidity above 20% for most of the state. Southerly winds may increase in the southwest with a few gusts to 25mph late in the day, continuing to increase overnight. 


 

Tuesday, April 1st

Critical fire weather for western Kansas along the CO border. 

Significant southerly return flow is expected with much warmer temperatures. Wind gusts potentially as high as 45mph statewide. A dryline will push into western Kansas late day and drop afternoon humidity into the teens with a southwesterly wind shift. This will result in critical fire weather for far western Kansas. Poor recovery is expected in the west into Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, April 2nd

Elevated fire weather for most of west/central Kansas. 

Dryline will progress into eastern Kansas leaving gusty westerly winds and widespread humidity down to the teens. This will develop elevated fire weather at least for much of the state. Winds will weaken during the afternoon however, helping prevent stronger wording of fire weather environment. A cold front will push south through the state overnight. This will shift winds northerly and push in cooler/moderated air.


 

 Thursday, April 3rd

 Breezy northerly winds to start the day will weaken by the afternoon. Moderated air and cooler weather should limit fire weather concerns. 

 

Chip (3/27/25)

Next update 3/31/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.




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