3/9/26 Forecast (3/9 - 3/16)

Fuels:

Recent precipitation focused primarily on the eastern part of the state with a few isolated areas in central seeing measurable rainfall. Much of the west and portions of central are between 20-60 days without wetting rainfall and thus, longer duration dryness would favor increased difficulty of suppression and more aggressive fire potential. With these same areas mostly favored to remain dry through the week, ERC %-tiles are forecasted to increase from around the 50th %-tile to upwards of the 75th %-tile. When combined with occasional breezy winds, initial attack is favored with large fire remaining limited until a larger wind event does occur. Further east, while grasses/fines will be available some afternoons during the forecast period, periods of good humidity recovery and some rainfall should limit large fire concerns and favor prescribed burning. Heavier fuels, timber regions and areas of increased green-up will provide numerous barriers to fire spread. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 9th

Very warm conditions with temperatures as much as 20F above normal. This will result in low humidity, down to the 10-15% range for most of the state except the southeast. There, despite breezy winds, gusting to 30mph from the south, will increase humidity to near 40%. Winds will be light for most of the state out of the south. Southerly winds will increase along the CO border in the late afternoon with a few gusts to 25mph. Isolated elevated fire weather is possible before sunset but coverage will be limited. Poor overnight recovery for most of the west and south-central Kansas with light southwest wind.  

    

 

 

Tuesday, March 10th

Dry air and very warmer temperatures will persist for the state to the west of I-35. There, humidity will fall as low as the 10% range in the southwest, modified to the north/east with minimums near 20% early in the afternoon. Clouds will increase from south to north as a warm front moves northward across Kansas. This will moderate the fire environment overall, reducing winds and increasing humidity. Winds will be light out of the west and become southwest in late day. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms expected for central and east Kansas into the evening. Winds shift north with a weak front overnight.  

 



 Wednesday, March 11th

Elevated fire weather north/west of I-35.

A more potent cold front crosses the region early in the morning. This will shift winds northerly with gusts to 35mph during the day. These will slowly taper off in the evening. Despite temperatures significantly cooler than previous days, a dry air mass will result in RH around 10-15% in the western portion of the state and slightly higher, reaching the 25% along the I-35 corridor. Further south/east from there, recent moisture will keep minimums higher yet, in the 30-40% range. 

 

 

 

 

 Thursday, March 12th

Critical fire weather statewide.

Southerly return flow develops with warmer conditions returning northward and periods of cirrus clouds. This will result in temperatures near 10-15F warmer than previous days. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 40mph for much of the region during the afternoon. With coinciding dry air still in place, minimum  humidity values near 15-20% range, will result in at/near critical fire weather across the region in a return flow scenario. Winds will gradually weaken after sunset with only moderate (and poor in some areas) humidity recovery into Friday. 

 

 

  

Friday, March 13th 

Elevated fire weather west of a Rawlins - Seward Co line. 

Mostly quiet weather is expected across the region with warming trend continuing and dry conditions. Humidity will be as low as the 10-15% range in the west. Some lingering clouds over the east/central will keep the RH slightly higher with light winds. Winds will increase out of the west along the CO border late day with a few gusts to 30mph. This will develop at least elevated fire weather. If conditions onset earlier in the day, critical fire weather is possible, especially in the northwest. Light winds will persist with poor RH recovery into Saturday for the far west. 

 

 

Saturday, March 14th

Critical fire weather for far west Kansas, elevated conditions for the remainder of the west/central. 

Very warm conditions with temperatures reaching the 80s. Light southwest wind is expected across all of Kansas with most of the state seeing gusts to 15mph. Along the CO border, winds will be more westerly and slightly stronger, with some gusts to 25mph. This will be combined with RH in the single digits to result in critical fire weather along the CO border. Further east, minimum RH will increase with eastward extent, reaching the 30% range along the MO border. Overnight recovery into early Saturday will be poor for the western half of the state. Southerly winds will increase overnight, switching to the north with a strong cold front early Sunday morning. 

 

 

 

  

Sunday, March 15th

Strong northerly winds with temperatures falling through the day. Higher humidity initially along and just behind the front will result in clouds and periods of showers (maybe some snow). Some sun is possible late in the afternoon that will mix down drier air with some minimum RH values in the low-20% range in western Kansas. Despite wind gusts to 50mph early, winds will gradually weaken through the day.

 

 

 

Monday, March 16th

Temperatures warm some compared to Sunday with a dry airmass in place. Afternoon humidity will fall into the teens for much of the state. Winds will be light with high pressure dominating the region. The high will shift east with a few southerly gusts of wind approaching the 20mph range for southwest Kansas. Moisture will increase with winds becoming more southeast overnight. No fire weather concerns. 

 

Chip (3/9/26)

Next forecast: 3/16/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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