3/16/26 Forecast (3/16 - 3/23)

Fuels:

Continued dry conditions are expected through the period. When combined with near record high temperatures and only moderate to poor overnight recovery, rapid drying of the fuels landscape is expected this week. ERCs are anticipated to increase substantially to statewide averages exceeding 70th percentile. While fine fuels will likely remain dry and able to carry fire through much of the period, heavier fuels and regions of timber will become much more conducive to fire as well. This will result in a landscape with minimal barriers to fire spread with higher intensity and overall behavior - even under benign weather conditions. With heavies fully consuming, the potential for holdovers and rekindles are increased and fire suppression will be more challenging. Weather will become increasingly potent by the weekend with an increase in winds with growing potential of large fires as conditions align until more widespread wetting rains develop. Moisture is not expected through the period.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 16th

Elevated fire weather today for east of US-81. 

Breezy northwest winds will linger for eastern Kansas with some gusts to 30mph possible. Despite cold conditions, dry air will result in minimum humidity around the 25% range. This will result in elevated fire weather in eastern Kansas. Conditions will ease with weakening winds after sunset. Further west, despite very dry conditions, winds will remain light. Poor overnight recovery is expected for most of the state into Tuesday. 

 

    

 

 

Tuesday, March 17th

Elevated fire weather for the Flint Hills and northwest Kansas. 

A weak low pressure system will track across the state during the day. Ahead of the system, south/southwest winds will increase across eastern Kansas. Gusts to 30mph are likely. Further west, a weak cold front will push into the far northwest in the afternoon. This will switch winds northwesterly with gusts also approaching the 30mph range. Winds elsewhere will be more moderated. Some clouds and isolated showers in the east will keep fire weather conditions somewhat in check. Still, minimum RH will fall into the upper 20% range creating elevated fire weather in the afternoon. With drier conditions in the west, elevated to near critical fire weather is likely in the northwest. Moderate humidity recovery is expected into Wednesday, likely the best recovery of the week.

 

 



 Wednesday, March 18th

Light westerly downslope winds will develop across the state. This will usher in much warmer and drier conditions with temperatures reaching the 80F mark, especially in the west. RH will fall to 10-15% range for the west with moderation with eastward extent, reaching only the 35% range along the MO border. Winds for the most part will remain light. However, some gusts to 20mph are possible along the CO border late day. Poor RH recovery into Thursday with breezy southwest winds overnight.  

 

 

 

 

 Thursday, March 19th

High pressure builds over the state with light winds for March standards. Winds will rotate clockwise through the day with changing direction, however, gusts should remain under the 20mph range. Very warm and dry. Temperatures will reach the mid-80s for most of the state with RH as low as the single digits in western Kansas, slightly higher in the east. Poor overnight recovery into Friday for all but the southeast. 

 

 

 

  

Friday, March 20th 

Elevated fire weather statewide.

A weak cold front crosses the region with a wind shift from southwest (gusting to 25mph) shifting to northwest (to 20mph) during the burn period. This will yield elevated fire weather due to timing within the burn period. Temperatures will be relatively unchanged and remain very, very warm for March standards. Lastly, very dry conditions are expected ahead, along and behind the front with minimum RH in the 10-15% range for most of the state. 

 

 

 

Saturday, March 21th

Critical fire weather most of Kansas.

Return flow develops with southwest winds pushing even warmer (and drier) conditions into Kansas and the Central Plains. Record high temperatures are expected with values in the low to mid 90s across the region. Additionally, dry air will allow for single digit RH in the afternoon. This will be combined with southwest winds reaching the 30mph range, resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions. All this is developing ahead of a cold front that will arrive overnight into Sunday morning. Continued winds and a wind shift will result in poor humidity recovery statewide and a multi-operational burn period into Sunday. Winds may gust up to 40mph along and behind the front into Sunday morning.

 

 

 

Sunday, March 22nd

Critical fire weather for all of Kansas. 

Breezy post-frontal conditions are expected with temperatures up to 25-30F cooler than previous days. Winds will be out of the north/northeast, gusting to 40mph. This air mass will still be very dry with minimum RH around 20%. There is the potential for some cloud cover in northern Kansas which may improve the fire environment, especially RH some. With prevailing and continuing very dry conditions, this will result in critical fire weather for most of the state. Winds will weaken in the afternoon for northern Kansas.  

 

 

 

Monday, March 16th

Weather pattern begins to get more active with several systems expected over the course of the week. Winds will be mostly easterly as flow shifts around ahead of the next storm system. This will moderate the dry conditions somewhat with higher moisture and some cloud cover. Still, temperatures warm slightly and remain above normal. 

 

Chip (3/16/26)

Next forecast: 3/19/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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