2/9/26 Forecast (2/9 - 2/16)

Fuels:

Drying trend continues with longer term fuels beginning to cure as we become further distanced from the recent snow/precipitation events. As a result, the fire environment is becoming more supportive of large fire activity statewide. BIs are expected to peak this period on Monday with values exceeding the 90th percentile in southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, ERCs are trending upwards, reaching the 50th percentile for western Kansas. The western 1/3rd of the state will see less barrier to spread in tree lines, etc and extreme fire behavior in areas with heavier fuel loading than normal. While the landscape isn't as aligned for central/east Kansas with lower ERCs, fine fuels will be the primary carrier to fire spread with timber areas still being unsupportive of carrying fire effectively. Some precipitation is possible Friday/Saturday with focus in the southeast. Depending on coverage/amount, this may check up the environment some before the next potential fire weather event early next week. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, February 9th

Elevated fire weather statewide with critical fire weather from Hamilton to Barber Co and southward.  

Breezy southwest flow will develop across the region resulting in near/at record temperatures. This will drop humidity down to as low as the single digits in western Kansas with mid-20% for the rest of the state. Wind gusts up to 35mph are expected in the southwest/south-central and will develop critical fire weather concerns this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter with elevated fire weather conditions into the evening. Humidity will be quick to rebound in the east after sunset but slower in the west where breezy winds will continue, resulting in continued elevated fire weather. Cold front will push south in the early hours of Tuesday with a wind shift to the north and increasing humidity.  

 

 

 

Tuesday, February 10th

Elevated fire weather for central and eastern Kansas.  

Breezy northerly winds post-frontal during the day with gusts up to 30mph, especially in central/east Kansas. Despite temperatures almost 20F cooler, dry air will remain in place with widespread afternoon humidity in the upper 20% range. This will result in widespread elevated fire weather, especially early afternoon before winds start to wane later in the afternoon. Good overnight recovery into Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, February 11th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border. 

A stronger system begins to approach the region with winds shifting to the south/southeast. Strongest gusts are expected in far west Kansas along the CO border, up to 25mph. This will develop some elevated fire weather in the afternoon with humidity around 20%. Further east, humidity will be similarly dry but winds will be less, keeping fire weather concerns minimal. 

 

 

 Thursday, February 12th

Low pressure system will slowly track across the state with shifting winds through the day and warmer temperatures. During the afternoon, winds will be southerly ahead of the low in eastern Kansas with moderated humidity. Western Kansas will northerly winds and much drier air. With gusts up to 25mph and afternoon humidity in the 20% range, some elevated fire weather is possible briefly during the peak burning period. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should remain low. 

 

 

 

Friday, February 13th 

Light easterly winds expected across the region with continued warmer than normal temperatures. Humidity will be still be fairly dry with afternoon values around the 30% range but conditions will remain moderated increasing cloud cover. Moisture will slowly increase in the late afternoon as another storm system approaches the region for Saturday. 

 

 

 Saturday, February 14th

System will shift off to the east with a cold front pushing across the region from the northwest. This will bring drier air into the region with light northwest winds. Temperatures will remain above normal despite the front. Some precipitation possible in the southeast, dissipating in the evening.  

 

  

Sunday, February 15th

Southerly flow increases in the afternoon with gusts reaching the 30mph range by late day. Moisture will increase slowly for central/east Kansas. Further west, mid-20% range minimum humidity as temperatures remain above normal. As a result, some elevated fire weather is possible, especially in western Kansas during the afternoon. Overnight humidity recover will be poor for the west into Monday with continuing wind. 

 

 

 

 Monday, February 16th

Critical fire weather possible for at least far southwest Kansas. 

The overall pattern will need monitoring with some vague similarities to critical fire weather patterns of the Great Plains. Flow transitions to the southwest with a more impactful storm system entering the central US.Wind gusts up to 40mph, perhaps higher are possible with much warmer/drier conditions entering southwest Kansas. This will result in elevated to critical fire weather possible with uncertainty to how far east/north conditions extend. 

 

 

Chip (2/9/26)

Next forecast: 2/12/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.