2/2/26 Forecast (2/2 - 2/9)

Fuels:

Lingering snow pack/melt and cooler than normal conditions have positively modified fuels across the region this week. The only exception is far west/northwest Kansas that received little moisture and is now over 70 days without wetting moisture. This area will be the focus for enhanced drying associated with warmer than normal temperatures and downslope conditions the next week. Fine and heavy fuels will be conducive to fire spread and there are few barriers to spread on the landscape. With eastward extent, while fine fuels will become more available with snow melt, timber areas and heavier fuels will hold moisture until a more prolonged dry spell becomes established. This will allow more barriers to spread and high suppression success. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, February 2nd

Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 30mph expected across the snow free regions of western Kansas. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 50s, with humidity falling to the mid-20% range in the afternoon. This will develop briefly elevated fire weather in the afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset with rebounding RH. Further east, lingering snow and moist soils will keep temperatures cooler with higher humidity.  

 

 

 

Tuesday, February 3rd

A cold front crosses the region with slightly cooler temperatures and light northerly winds. Humidity will still fall into the low 20% range in western Kansas but remain modified in the central/east. A few snow showers late. No fire weather concerns. 

 


 

Wednesday, February 4th

Another reinforcing cold front early in the morning will increase winds out of the northwest, with gusts to 25mph statewide. Temperatures slightly cooler than Tuesday with increased humidity, lowest in the west where afternoon minimums will drop into the 30% range. A few light rain/snow showers. No fire weather concerns.  Winds shift westerly overnight ahead of the next front with reduced humidity recovery for the western third of the state into Thursday. 

 

 

 

 Thursday, February 5th

Strong front crosses the area early in the morning. This will shift winds northwesterly with gusts to 30mph statewide. However, downslope component of the wind will result in temperatures actually warmer than Wednesday by 10-15 degrees with highs in the 50s. This warmer air will also be drier with most of central and western Kansas observing minimum RH values in the low 20% range. This will develop elevated fire weather for snow free regions of central/west Kansas during the afternoon. Winds decrease with improved RH into the overnight.

 

 

Friday, February 6th 

A cold front pushes southward and dissects the state during the afternoon, shifting winds to the north with gusts to 25mph. As a result, much cooler/humid conditions expected along and north of the front. For southwest Kansas, the area likely to be ahead of the front, temperatures will remain warm with minimum humidity again in the low 20% range. Winds will be lighter in this region which should limit any fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

 Saturday, February 7th

Winds shift southeast across the region as a low pressure develops south of the state. Winds should remain overall light with gusts generally less than 20mph. Temperatures will warm slightly, into the upper 40s with minimum humidity in the upper 20% range. Moisture will increase late afternoon with improving humidity values into the overnight. The one exception will be in southwest Kansas where a weak dryline will try to push into the region, this will result in a wind shift to the southwest and decreased humidity overnight. 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, February 8th

Weak cold front will shift winds northwest with gusts only expected in the 20mph range. Temperatures will be cooler with improved humidity across the region. Winds shift southerly late in the day as another stronger system starts to approach the region. Depending on the track of the low, there is some variability in the potential outcomes of wind speed/direction later in the day. However, fire weather concerns seem low regardless. 

 

 

 Monday, February 9th

Southerly flow will encompass most of central and eastern Kansas with high humidity, cloud cover and warmer temperatures. Some precipitation is also possible in southeast Kansas as a low tracks to the south/east of Kansas. Drier air will push into far west Kansas in the afternoon and may develop some brief elevated fire weather but the coverage will be limited spatially.

 

 

Chip (2/2/26)

Next forecast: 2/9/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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