2/16/26 Forecast (2/16 - 2/23)

Fuels:

Precipitation over the weekend has created a complex fire environment. Spotty heavier rains in western Kansas, especially in the northwest have provided an end to ~80 days without wetting moisture. Other areas such as southwest Kansas and stretching northeastward into Ellis/Trego/Russell Co did not measure significant moisture in this event. Fuels in these regions will reach critical levels with ERCs hitting the 80th %-tile and BIs pushing the 99th %-tile. This is where most extreme fire behavior is possible through the period. However, areas out side of this region in central and northwest Kansas will observe rapid drying of fuels as well. While not forecasted to reach critical levels, fine fuels will become conducive to carry fire, especially into Wed/Thurs. Decreased overnight humidity recovery will expand burn periods, especially on Mon through Thurs and fire behavior may only slightly moderate.  

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, February 16th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border.

Breezy south winds will shift east into eastern Kansas with gusts to 30mph. Periodic clouds and more moderated humidity (around 35-40%) will preclude fire weather concerns in this region. Further west, winds will shift southeasterly in the afternoon hours with some gusts to 20mph in the afternoon. Humidity will remain lower (~20%) with more solar insolation resulting in elevated fire weather. Winds will shift southwest in far southwest Kansas overnight as a dryline enters the state into early Tuesday. This area will slowly expand northeast by daybreak, reaching along/west of US-183 with an area of elevated fire weather persisting overnight.     

 

 

Tuesday, February 17th

Extreme fire weather expected for Greeley Co, southeast to Barber Co. 

Critical fire weather west of US 81.

Strong low pressure system will develop in northwest Kansas. This will push a dryline east into central Kansas in the afternoon. West of the dryline, RH will drop to near 15% with strong southwest winds, potentially up to 50mph. An area of even stronger winds, potentially up to 60mph is expected in southwest Kansas. These winds will transition more westerly slowly through the afternoon. Some high clouds and blowing dust possible, possibly taking the edge off the fire environment slightly. 

Further east, RH will only fall into the 40% range during the daytime but gusts will still be at/near 45mph. The dryline will eventually push east to Missouri overnight. This will result in widespread poor humidity recovery, west winds to 30mph, and elevated fire weather statewide into Wednesday.

 

Wednesday, February 11th

Critical fire weather west of a Hamilton to Meade Co line. 

Temperatures will be slightly cooler with persisting very dry (humidity in the 20% range) statewide. With widespread sun, areas of isolated elevated fire weather is still likely despite eased conditions. Late afternoon, southwest winds will increase again from a line of Hamilton Co to Meade Co and westward as another dryline pushes into the region. There, winds will increase to 35-40mph again with humidity in the teens by sunset. Overnight, this area will spread north/east encompassing much of west/central Kansas in elevated fire weather into Thursday.  

 

 

 

 Thursday, February 19th

 Critical fire weather along and south of I-70.  

Low pressure system will move east across northern Kansas during the day. This will overspread breezy westerly winds and the dryline again to the Missouri border early morning. Afternoon humidity is expected to be in the 20% range with wind gusts to 35mph. A cold front will push south starting late morning in the northwest and move across the state during the course of the day. Northwest winds up to 45mph are possible along and behind the cold front. This will provide a substantial wind shift during the burn period. However, humidity will increase dramatically post-frontal with some light precipitation possible in northern Kansas. 

 

 

 

Friday, February 20th 

High pressure builds in across the region with more seasonable temperatures. Very dry air will remain across the region with afternoon minimums around 20% statewide. Breezy northwest winds, gusting to 25mph will linger across eastern Kansas, diminishing in the afternoon. Southerly winds will then increase in the west late day with some gusts to 20mph. Some areas of briefly elevated fire weather are possible in both of these regions. Poor overnight humidity recovery is expected in southwest Kansas. 

 

 

 

 Saturday, February 21st

Very weak low pressure system shifts east over the state. Southerly winds with a few gusts to 20mph expected in the eastern half of the state with northerly winds in the west. Temperatures will warm several degrees compared to Friday. Still very dry with widespread minimum humidity in the 20% range statewide.

 

  

Sunday, February 22nd

Another weak system moves across the region with improved humidity as a result of cooler conditions and increased clouds. Winds should remain light out of the east with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

 

Monday, February 23rd

Cooler air mass persists across the region with moderated conditions. Winds will shift southerly and increase late in the day but no fire weather conditions are expected.  

 

 

Chip (2/16/26)

Next forecast: 2/19/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.