2/13/26 Forecast (2/13 - 2/20)

Fuels:

Continued warmer than normal condition temperatures are pushing fuels toward drier conditions with increases in drought, 1000 hour fuels and KBDI over the last few days. Additionally, ERC percentiles continue to slowly climb across the state, bringing the environment in better alignment with cured (and heavy loading) of fine fuels. The biggest caveat of the forecast will be the impact of weekend moisture. Currently, improvements are expected only briefly expected in fine fuels with some lingering moisture in timber/shaded regions. Otherwise, the landscape (especially in southwest Kansas were less moisture falls and northwest Kansas where more prolonged drought is developing) will be conducive to extreme fire behavior when fire weather conditions align next week. With rapid drying and poor humidity recovery overnights, fuels will become increasingly volatile throught he period, peaking by Thursday. Anticipated extended burn periods and fires to be more resistant to suppression as the week goes on. Barriers to spread will initially be numerous but gradually become less effective through the period. Lastly, muddy conditions in eastern/central Kansas will provide challenging suppression tactics.

Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:

Friday, February 13th 

Light easterly winds expected across the region with continued warmer than normal temperatures. Humidity will still be fairly dry with afternoon values around the 30% range but conditions will remain moderated with increasing cloud cover. Moisture will slowly increase in the late afternoon as another storm system approaches the region for Saturday. Some showers expected overnight for much of central/east Kansas.

 

 

 Saturday, February 14th

Periods of showers and storms in central/east Kansas with wetting moisture. During the afternoon, system will shift off to the east with a cold front pushing across the region from the northwest. This will bring drier air into the region with light northwest winds. Temperatures will remain above normal despite the front.   

 

  

Sunday, February 15th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border. 

Southerly flow increases in the afternoon along and just east of the CO border with gusts reaching the 25mph range by late day. Moderated humidity will linger for central/east Kansas. Further west, mid-20% minimum humidity expected as temperatures remain above normal. As a result, some elevated fire weather is possible, especially in western Kansas during the afternoon. Overnight humidity recover will be poor for the west/southwest into Monday with continuing breezy winds. 

 

 

Monday, February 16th

Elevated fire weather west of US 81.

Continued southerly flow will persist and even strengthen across the region. This will result in some gusts to 30mph, especially in central and southwest Kansas. Combined with much warmer temperatures will create rapid drying of the fuels, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon minimum humidity will drop into the 15% range. Mid-20% RH may extend as far east as the US-81 corridor in the afternoon. Further east, RH will be more moderated despite breezy winds. Overnight recovery is expected to be moderate to poor for much of western Kansas into Tuesday.  

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, February 17th

Critical fire weather west of US 81.

Strong low pressure system will develop in northwest Kansas. This will push a dryline east into central Kansas in the afternoon. West of the dryline, RH will drop to near 15% with strong southwest winds, potentially up to 50mph. These winds will transition more westerly slowly through the afternoon. This will develop critical fire weather west of the US-81 corridor during the typical burning period. Some high clouds are forecasted which may take the edge off the fire environment. Further east, RH will gradually increase despite gusty southerly winds, into the 40% range. The dryline will eventually push east to the US-77 corridor overnight with poor humidity recovery and west winds to 30mph into Wednesday. 

 

 

Wednesday, February 11th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border. 

Westerly morning winds will shift back to the southwest with gusts weaker than yesterday, reaching up to 20mph in southwest Kansas. Widespread low humidity with lowest values in the southwest, down to the single digits, around 20% expected for the remainder of the state. Poor humidity recovery will expand across most of west/central Kansas with increasing westerly winds overnight.   

 

 

 

 Thursday, February 19th

 Critical fire weather for all but far eastern Kansas.  

A more classic outbreak scenario will unfold with gusty westerly winds, potentially to 45mph and very low humidity, 15-20% statewide. This will result in widespread critical fire weather for all but along the MO border where humidity will be more moderated. A cold front will enter the state during the late morning and push southeast through the day. This will shift winds to the northwest with gusts to 50mph possible. Humidity and cloud cover will increase post-frontal into the evening. Improved overnight humidity recovery into Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Chip (2/13/26)

Next forecast: 2/16/26

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.