1/5/25 Forecast (1/5 - 1/12)

Fuels:

High moisture airmasses have kept the fire environment in check over the past week despite continued lack of precipitation. As a result, indices reflect only marginally drying of the landscape with moderated ERCs for central/east Kansas. Further west, longer term dryness of 40+ days without wetting rains have allowed ERC to reach the 75th+ percentile and suggest a landscape more receptive to fire spread. Combined with a period of 48 hours of drying with a downslope wind event early this week, fire behavior during the afternoon burn period may approach extreme conditions and resist suppression - especially considering the fuel load in the southwest. Conditions will moderate mid-week before drier conditions return late week and into the weekend, increasing fire weather once again. Fire behavior is expected to continually increase through the period for all but the far southeast which may receive some light moisture late week. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:

Monday, January 5th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas. 

Downslope winds will result in warmer/drier conditions for most of western Kansas with afternoon RH falling to the low teens. Winds will be breezy with some gusts to the mid-20mph range in the southwest, developing elevated to near-critical fire weather during the burn period. Winds will taper off but humidity slow to increase overnight. Only moderate recovery at best expected into Tuesday. Central/east Kansas will observe higher moisture and lighter winds with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, January 6th

Elevated fire weather for northwest Kansas. 

Dry conditions persist and expand eastward with afternoon minimum RH around 20% for most of the state. Strongest winds will shift to the northwest portion of the state with some gusts out of the west up to 25mph in the afternoon. This will result in elevated fire weather in the northwest where winds will overlap dry conditions. Winds will be lighter elsewhere and mitigate elevated conditions. Overnight recovery will be moderate at best for much of the state into Wednesday. 

 

 

Wednesday, January 7th

Dry conditions persist across the state with widespread humidity again in the 20% range. Winds will be light for most of west but increase out of the south for central/eastern Kansas. Gusts should mostly remain under 20mph which will prevent elevated fire weather conditions. The 24-48 hour rapid drying period that has encompassed much of the state will likely lead to more aggressive fire spread than expected despite lower winds. Humidity increases overnight with good recovery into Thursday.  

 

 

   

   

Thursday, January 8th

Low pressure tracks across Kansas resulting in an influx of moisture for most of the state. Driest conditions will be along the CO border where afternoon RH will drop to about 30%. Winds will turn westerly and then northwest by the evening as a cold front sweeps across the region. Gusts in the afternoon up to 30mph possible. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Friday, January 9th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas.

Stronger low pressure system will develop along a stalled front and cross the state during the afternoon. This will allow for moisture to develop in southeast Kansas with some wetting rains. Some snow is possible along the north/western periphery of the system but little impacts are expected. A stronger cold front pushes into western Kansas. This will usher in a cooler but very dry air mass with afternoon humidity into the 15-20% range for the western third of the state. Combined with northwest winds gusting to 40mph, elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected during the burn period. Poor to moderate recovery along/behind the cold front into Saturday.

 

 

 

 

Saturday, January 10th

Elevated fire weather statewide. 

Post-frontal conditions will overspread the state as the cold front shifts off to the east. This drier air mass will drop afternoon humidity into the low-20% range for the entire region. Breezy west/northwest winds will persist through the day with gusts to 30mph. This will yield elevated fire weather for the afternoon. Only moderate overnight recovery into Sunday with decreased winds.

 

Sunday, January 11th

Continued dry and cool with afternoon humidity in the mid-20% range statewide. Temperatures, although cooler than previous days, will still be above normal for January. Winds shift southwest and remain breezy with gusts to 20-25mph statewide. This could develop some borderline elevated fire weather for the southwest and northwest where gusts may creep slightly higher. Confidence in location is low however.  Moderate humidity recovery expected for west Kansas, better in the east.

 

 

   

Monday, January 12th

Persistent southwest flow will continue. This will increase temperatures by about ten degrees and keep afternoon humidity in the 20% range for most of the state. Winds will again gust to the mid-20% range and result in borderline elevated fire weather. A cold front expected late Monday will shift winds northerly overnight into Tuesday. This will result in only moderate overnight humidity recovery into Tuesday. 

 

Chip (1/5/25)

Next forecast: 1/12/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.