1/20/26 Forecast (1/20 - 1/26)

Fuels:

Despite cooler conditions recently, very dry air is slowly starting to dry out 1000 hour fuels. As a result, the landscape is gradually becoming more conducive to fire that will burn more intensely and hold heat in heavier fuels that were once barriers. Snow cover in the southwest (and across much of the state by late in the period) will reverse this trend slightly with increased barriers to fire spread and mitigate overall fire potential in the region. Before this weekend's snow however, burn periods will be extended due to only moderate humidity recovery and breezy winds associated with frontal passages. The nature of the expected snow should be powdery and light. This will likely not have a significant impact on fuels alignment.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 

 

Forecast:


Tuesday, January 20th

Elevated fire weather for central and eastern Kansas.  

Breezy southwest winds, up to 30mph are expected for all but the far northwest. This will overlap a dry air mass with humidity in the low 20% range, especially in central and eastern Kansas. This, combined with warmer temperatures will result in elevated fire weather during the afternoon hours. A frontal passage will push south across the state in the evening shifting winds northerly with gusts to 20mph overnight. Only moderate humidity recovery is expected into Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, January 21st

Elevated fire weather north of I-70.   

Winds shift back out of the southwest in advance of yet another cold front. Strongest gusts are expected along and north of I-70, reaching the 30mph range. While there will be marginally higher moisture across the region, humidity will still fall into the mid-20% range. This will yield elevated fire weather conditions north of I-70 during the afternoon. Yet another cold front will push south across the region after sunset. Winds will shift northerly, reaching up to 15mph overnight. This will result in mixing and only moderate humidity recovery again into Thursday. 

 

Thursday, January 22nd

Winds shift southeast ahead of a much more powerful cold front but remain overall light. Persistent dry conditions will prevail with afternoon humidity in the low 20% range statewide. Temperatures will be about 10-15F cooler than previous days. A very potent cold front will cross the region overnight with gusty north winds up to 25mph. Additionally, this will result in only moderate humidity recovery into Friday morning. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

 Friday, January 23rd

Elevated for much of the state.  

Much, much colder with afternoon highs only reaching the single digits for all but the far southwest. Despite the cooler conditions, very dry air will result widespread 10-15% humidity. When combined with northeast winds gusting to 35mph, elevated to near critical fire weather is expected for the entire state. Winds will weaken into the overnight with light snow developing in the south after sunset.

 

 

 

Saturday, January 24th

Periods of light to moderate snow for the entire region. Highest totals expected in the southeast, lowest amounts in the northwest. Very cold with light wind. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Sunday, January 25th

Snow shifts mostly to the eastern part of the state. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer but remaining quite cold. No fire weather concerns. 

 


 Monday, January 26th

High pressure builds in across the region. With snow pack, temperatures will remain very cold and no fire weather concerns are expected. Some warmer, drier conditions will try to push into northwest Kansas with downslope flow from the Rockies late day.

 

 

 

   

Tuesday, January 27th

Warmer, drier conditions will push into southwest Kansas as snow gradually melts. Temperatures will be about 20F warmer with afternoon humidity in the 20% range. Coverage will be limited to where snow erodes and likely be a spatially small location to merit fire weather concerns. 

 

Chip (1/20/26)

Next forecast: 1/26/26

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

























 

 

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