1/12/25 Forecast (1/12 - 1/19)

Fuels:

Widespread moisture occurred for all but northwest Kansas. For the most part, improvements in the fuels landscape were short-lived due to much drier air that moved in after the event. Still, soil moisture at the surface will keep matted grass and timber litter moist, acting more like a heavier fuel model in areas which received precipitation. Additionally, any lingering snow in the southwest will keep temperatures slightly cooler and reduce receptivity to fire early in the week. Through the period, widespread dry, warm and breezy conditions will begin to result in rapid drying. This will slowly bring heavier fuels into better alignment with the already conducive fine fuels. As a result, fire behavior will increase on days with heightened wind and fire weather. Barriers to spread will become less effective along with suppression success, especially where fuel loads are significant. Biggest area of large fire concern is the northwestern portion of the state that has now exceeded 50+ days since the last wetting rain. Fire behavior in this region has potential to be extreme with increased spotting and much resistance to suppression.

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:

Monday, January 12th

Overall quiet conditions with warmer temperatures reaching the 60F mark. Dry with widespread RH in the 30% range and light west wind. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with higher RH in the southwest where snow lingers. Reduced overnight humidity in the northwest where winds will gradually increase and shift northwest into Tuesday.

 

 

 

Tuesday, January 13th

Winds out of the northwest will gradually increase during the day with passage of a cold front. This will result in gusts up to 20mph, especially for northern Kansas by the evening. Temperatures will remain above normal with widespread humidity in the mid-20% range. Some elevated fire weather may develop in northwest late day but should be limited temporarily. A more potent cold front crosses the state overnight with winds becoming northerly and gusting to 30mph by daybreak Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, January 14th

Much cooler with temperatures 20 degrees less than Tuesday. Winds will be out of the north with gusts to 40mph for much of the state. Humidity will be checked up by periods of clouds and even some light rain/snow flurries. An area of lower humidity with more clear skies will push into northeast Kansas late afternoon dropping RH down to about 30%. There may be a brief window of elevated fire weather before conditions ease with sunset. 

 

 

 

   

   

Thursday, January 15th

Critical fire weather for northwest Kansas, elevated for central and southwest.  

Active weather pattern continues with another frontal passage, entering northwest by late morning and spreading southeast rapidly. This will overspread strong winds, up to 45mph for much of the western half of the state by evening. Despite being a cold front, downslope conditions will result in warmer temperatures and very low humidity, into the 12-17% range. This will result in critical fire weather for the northwest and elevated fire weather conditions for the remaining half of the state. Overnight, a reinforcing cold front will pass through the region. This will keep northwest winds gusting to 35mph and RH recovery only in the mid-20% range for much of the state. 

 

 

 

Friday, January 16th

Critical fire weather statewide except for the far northeast.

Strong northwest winds will continue with gusts approaching the 50mph in the northwest; 40mph for the rest of the state as a potent low pressure system tracks to the northeast of the state. Despite much cooler temperatures around freezing, RH in the west will still fall into the mid-teens yielding critical fire weather. Clouds for much of central/east Kansas will limit humidity in this region and check up fire weather conditions some - highest confidence in the northeast. Winds will begin to slightly decrease overnight with poor RH recovery statewide into Saturday.

 

 

 

 

Saturday, January 17th

Elevated fire weather for all of Kansas. 

More seasonable temperatures will persist with highs in the 30s. Northwest winds will linger, gusting to 40mph before starting to decrease by the late afternoon. Generally dry with RH values around the 30% range. Conditions will be slightly reduced compared to Friday, however, with previous rapid drying, still widespread elevated fire weather is expected. Light northwest winds and poor to moderate recovery into Sunday. 

 

Sunday, January 18th

Temperatures begin to moderate with dry westerly flow. This warming trend will be accompanied by RH values down to near 20%. However, winds will remain fairly light and keep fire weather concerns minimal at this time. 

 

 

   

Monday, January 19th

Winds turn southwest and increase in advance of another cold front. This will increase temperatures by about ten degrees and keep afternoon humidity in the 20% range for most of the state. Winds will again gust to the mid-20mph range and result in borderline elevated fire weather. A cold front expected late Monday will shift winds northerly overnight into Tuesday. This will result in only moderate overnight humidity recovery into Tuesday. 

 

Chip (1/12/25)

Next forecast: 1/19/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.