10/20/25 Forecast (10/20 - 10/27)

Fuels:

A freeze occurred across far western Kansas over the weekend that is quickly sending live fuels into dormancy. These fuels will become cured over the course of the next week. Additionally, more freezes are possible across west/central Kansas through the week. As a result, fuels will slowly fall into alignment and become more continuous. This is in addition to the cured cropland resulting in less barriers to fire spread. With the introduction of fall wind this week, spread rates will be increased and suppression will be more challenging, especially during peak afternoon burn periods. ERCs still remain below the 50th percentile so fire spread will be limited to the finer fuels/crops that are available. Longer burn periods are also expected this week with only moderate to poor humidity recovery. Late week and into the weekend, with the increase in moisture, fire spread will be mitigated and behavior stunted. With another cold front expected late weekend, more potential freezes are possible with increases in winds and fire weather which may result in another period of wildfire potential early next week.  

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Forecast:


Monday, October 20th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas. 

Strong cold front pushes southeast across the state. This will result in falling temperatures and afternoon northwest winds gusting up to 45mph. Afternoon humidity will remain fairly moderated, in the 20-30% range with the exception of along the CO border where minimums may drop briefly into the teens. This will result in elevated fire weather, especially along the CO border. Humidity will moderate somewhat into the overnight with continued breezy winds into Tuesday.  

 


 

Tuesday, October 21st

Elevated fire weather for northeast Kansas.  

Breezy northwest winds will persist but shift into northeast Kansas with weakening winds elsewhere. Maximum afternoon gusts will reach the 35mph range. Dry air will remain in place with afternoon minimums dropping into the 20% range for the entire state. This will develop some elevated fire weather in the northeast where long-term dryness is more prevalent.   

 

Wednesday, October 22nd

A transition day as the frontal system moves off to the east and a warm front approaches the area. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool. However, humidity will remain in the 20% range with lingering dry air and light east flow across the state. Light winds will keep fire weather concerns moderated for the day. Moderate humidity recovery expected overnight. 

 

  

   

Thursday, October 23rd

Winds shift southeast with a warm front and increase with gusts to 25mph in the afternoon. Humidity will gradually increase late in the day, however, before that, values may briefly drop down into the upper 20% range. There may be a short overlap in winds/humidity for some elevated fire weather, especially a concern where recent freezes have occurred. Otherwise, moisture increasing will limit fire concerns.  

 

 

 


Friday, October 24th

A substantial amount of moisture will stream northward into the region as the next system develops over Kansas. Widespread cloud cover, high humidity, showers and thunderstorms will impact the state. Highest confidence in wetting moisture resides in southeastern Kansas where up to 2" of moisture is possible through Saturday. 

 

 

 

 


Saturday, October 25th

The slow moving system will reside over eastern Kansas with widespread showers and storms across the state. No fire weather concerns expected. 

 

 


 

Sunday, October 26th

Lingering showers and clouds will continue to result in benign fire weather conditions. A cold front will push into the state late evening and result in a dramatic increase in northwest winds into Monday. A brief area of lower humidity may push into southwest Kansas ahead of the cold front late in the afternoon but confidence in this scenario is low.  

 

 

  

Monday, October 27th

Front will continue its slow progression eastward with strong winds both ahead of the front (out of the south) and behind the front (northwest). Gusts could reach up to 45mph, especially in the afternoon. Drier air will work into western Kansas late in the day with cool temperatures. Clouds may mitigate humidity to prevent it from reaching critical levels.  

 

 

Chip (10/20/25)

Next forecast: 10/27/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.





















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