KFS Fire Forecast

Fuels: Widespread improvements in fuel moisture have occurred due to persistent cloudy, moist conditions. This will result in almost little to no fire behavior to start the period. However, as conditions begin drying out as early as Tuesday in the west (not until Thursday in the east), fine fuels will become more available each afternoon. With additional widespread freezes this week, more vegetation will be forced into dormancy and potentially available into next week as a more prolonged dry period persists. This will also increase fire behavior and potential as a response in ERC and 1000 hr fuels is expected for the next week or so. Periods of wind will increase drying and also enhance fire behavior and spotting potential as the landscape becomes more primed to carry fire continuously.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, October 27th Continued overcast and damp with steady temperatures. A few breaks in the clouds for far west Kansas, otherwise, p...

Fuels: A freeze occurred across far western Kansas over the weekend that is quickly sending live fuels into dormancy. These fuels will become cured over the course of the next week. Additionally, more freezes are possible across west/central Kansas through the week. As a result, fuels will slowly fall into alignment and become more continuous. This is in addition to the cured cropland resulting in less barriers to fire spread. With the introduction of fall wind this week, spread rates will be increased and suppression will be more challenging, especially during peak afternoon burn periods. ERCs still remain below the 50th percentile so fire spread will be limited to the finer fuels/crops that are available. Longer burn periods are also expected this week with only moderate to poor humidity recovery. Late week and into the weekend, with the increase in moisture, fire spread will be mitigated and behavior stunted. With another cold front expected late weekend, more potential freezes are ...

  Fuels:  Very slowly, fine fuels across the region are sliding into dormancy due to shorter days. Until a widespread freeze, most fuels will be fairly prohibitive to fire spread. Cured crops will remain the most available fuel in the region during periods of warm, dry and sunny conditions. Heavier fuels remain quite moist with good overnight recoveries, periods of clouds and moisture. Until a more robust dry period, fire behavior will be moderated and fairly easy to suppress. Drought indices, especially in the eastern part of the state are starting to slowly rise as more long term drought is becoming established. This may present suppression issues when short term drying aligns, resulting in a dramatic increase in behavior. However, until a frost/freeze occurs and drier overall conditions emerge, fire behavior will be largely checked up.    Statewide Preparedness Level:  2   Forecast: Monday, October 13th Much cooler temperatures and lighter winds than pre...

Fuels: After accelerated drying with above normal temperatures, clouds and moisture have returned to start the week. This will briefly moderate the fire environment into mid-week. However, with a return to warming again by late week, drying is expected to return. Cured, brown crops will react like a one hour fuel and become available during sunny days with warm/dry conditions. Even with some recent moisture, the landscape is slowly becoming more dormant as we get further into the fall. ERCs are expected to rebound back to near 50th percentile by the weekend. Additionally, increased wind will push BIs above the 50th percentile and fire behavior is expected to increase as a result after Friday and through the weekend. Spread will still be limited to cured fuels (mostly cropland) with continued numerous barriers to spread on the landscape. This should limit fire size, however, increase potential in spotting will occur as winds become stronger this weekend, potentially increasing suppressi...