9/29/25 Forecast (9/29 - 10/6)

Fuels:

As the fall season progresses and daylight becomes more limited, some fuels are beginning to transition into dormancy. Additionally, recent warm, sunny and dry conditions have been gradually drying the landscape with ERCs increasing. This is coinciding with a period of heavy harvesting activity within cured croplands that will be conducive to carry fire. Otherwise, the landscape is mostly misaligned with good overnight recovery and still a lot of drying needed in the wooded regions and native prairie. Initial attack is expected to increase through the period but fire size should remain limited as a result. As winds increase late week, rates of spread and spotting potential will increase and a small window of opportunity for larger fires may open. However, with a frontal passage and increased precipitation chances this weekend, fire activity will likely become more limited as the vegetation responds accordingly.   

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, September 29th

Mostly sunny skies with continued above normal temperatures with afternoon highs reaching the mid-80s statewide. Afternoon humidity will fall into the mid-30% range. Winds will gradually increase out of the southeast with some gusts to 25mph in western Kansas.  

 

 

 

Tuesday, September 30th

Persistent conditions compared to Monday. Only subtle change is area of winds gusting to 25mph will expand slightly further east to the US-283 corridor as well. Afternoon humidity will also be marginally lower than yesterday.    

 

 


Wednesday, October 1st

High pressure remains in charge of the regions weather. Conditions remain similar to previous days. Again though, the corridor of strongest southeast winds, gusting to 25mph, will shift slightly further east and reside along the US-281 corridor. 

 

 

 

  

Thursday, October 2nd

Temperatures increase to near 90F statewide. As a result, afternoon humidity will be slightly lower with minimum values in the upper 20% range. Winds still out of the south/southeast but lighter with only gusts up to 20mph expected. 

 

 

 


Friday, October 3rd

Elevated fire weather along and west of US-81. 

Southerly winds increase across the region with an approaching frontal system. Points along and west of US-81 will observe afternoon gusts up to 30mph. Winds will have a southwest component in southwest Kansas where even warmer/drier air will push into the far corner of the state. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid-90s with RH in the teens. Further east, moisture will increase in the southeast with higher humidity 

 

 

 


Saturday, October 4th

Elevated fire weather along and west of US-81.  

Southerly winds continue to increase with gusts reaching the 40mph range for all but southeast Kansas. Temperatures will continue to be warm with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Humidity will be lowest in the southwest, in the teens and gradually increase with eastward extent. Clouds will increase along with some chances at showers/storms in the northwest late afternoon as a cold front attempts to push into the state. This front will slowly move southeast overnight and into Sunday. 

 

 


 

Sunday, October 5th

The front stalls in central Kansas with northwest winds behind the front and continued south/southwest winds in advance. Wind gusts will be tamer than Saturday, only reaching the 30mph range. With increased clouds, temperatures will be cooler than previous days with slightly moderated humidity as well.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon and lingering into the overnight. Wetting rains should remain isolated. 


 

  

Monday, October 6th

Temperatures will reside several degrees cooler with some lingering cloud/precipitation possible in northern Kansas. Winds will be breezy out of the north, gradually transitioning to more southerly. No fire weather concerns.  

 

 

Chip (9/29/25)

Next forecast: 10/6/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


















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