This blog is generated by Kansas Forest Service Incident Meteorologists to provide insight into fire weather concerns for week long periods. During times of quiet fire weather conditions, this blog may not be updated.
8/18/25 Update
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Chip is currently on a wildfire assignment and will be unable to update this blog until he returns (about two weeks most likely).
Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Fuels: After accelerated drying with above normal temperatures, clouds and moisture have returned to start the week. This will briefly moderate the fire environment into mid-week. However, with a return to warming again by late week, drying is expected to return. Cured, brown crops will react like a one hour fuel and become available during sunny days with warm/dry conditions. Even with some recent moisture, the landscape is slowly becoming more dormant as we get further into the fall. ERCs are expected to rebound back to near 50th percentile by the weekend. Additionally, increased wind will push BIs above the 50th percentile and fire behavior is expected to increase as a result after Friday and through the weekend. Spread will still be limited to cured fuels (mostly cropland) with continued numerous barriers to spread on the landscape. This should limit fire size, however, increase potential in spotting will occur as winds become stronger this weekend, potentially increasing suppressi...
Fuels: Precipitation and higher humidity the last several days have improved greenness and slightly improved 1000 hour statewide. Biggest improvements have been mostly along/east of I-35 where some moisture totals exceeded an inch. The result is a landscape becoming broken and much less potential for large fire. Wetting moisture between 0.1-0.25" occurred to the northwest of this region into the CO/NE/KS tristate area. Greenup will likely increase as a result in this region as well. Unfortunately, both southwest and northeast portions of the state missed out. Here fuels remain dry and conducive for aggressive fire behavior. The southwest especially will be exposed to continued warmer/drier than normal conditions into mid-week with potential for extreme behavior and significant resistance to suppression with above normal fuel loading. Statewide Preparedness Level: 3 Growing season index: 50% Forecast: Monday, March 31st Breezy south/southeast winds will ...
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