8/18/25 Update

 Chip is currently on a wildfire assignment and will be unable to update this blog until he returns (about two weeks most likely). 

 Sorry for the inconvenience.  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

Image
 Fuels: Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread.    Weekly Statewide PL: ~3 Onset GSI:   Forecast: Monday, March 10th Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward ...
Read more

3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Image
Fuels:  Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-ce...
Read more