8/11/25 Forecast (8/11 - 8/18)

 

Fuels:

Despite a period of heat and wind last week, fuels conditions were offset by fairly widespread rainfall the last two day. Cool season fine fuels and areas of wheat stubble will be the most likely areas to carry fire. Heavy fuels and warm season grasses remain fairly moist and will take another extended period of dry conditions to be conducive. Fire spread will remain very limited through the period even with a slight uptick in drying by the end of the week as warmer, drier and windy conditions return. Another timely precipitation event is possible by the end of the weekend keeps forecasted fuels conditions steady through the week. ERCs and BI are expected to remain at/below the 50th percentile for the period.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, August 11th

Lingering cloud cover, along with showers and thunderstorms (mostly east) will limit fire weather concerns today. Temperatures cooler than normal with high humidity. 

 

 

Tuesday, August 12th

Temperatures begin their slow climb back towards normal with highs in the mid-80s and sunnier conditions. This will lower humidity statewide into the mid-20% range. Winds will remain light with a northerly component.   

 

 


 

 

Wednesday, August 13th

Temperatures climb back to near normal, especially for the western half of the state as drier air is pushed northward. Afternoon humidity will fall to near 20% with light southerly winds gusting to 20mph. Slightly cooler in the east with higher humidity. 

 

 

 

  

Thursday, August 14th

Southerly winds increase out of the south with afternoon gusts near 30mph. This will advect much warmer temperatures northward into the region with upper 90s to near 100F possible. As a result, afternoon humidity will fall into the mid-teens. Fire conditions will remain limited by the fuels status. Slightly cooler and lingering moisture will moderate conditions in the east compared to the west. 

 

 


Friday, August 15th

Corridor of heat and dry conditions shift further east, however, wind is moderated compared to Thursday. Afternoon highs will approach the mid-to-upper 90s for most of the state with widespread afternoon humidity in the 10-15% range. Periods of cirrus possible in the afternoon. 

 

 

 


Saturday, August 16th

Similar temperatures compared to Friday. Winds will increase out of the south-southwest with some afternoon gusts to 35mph possible in the southwest. Moisture will also slowly increase which will moderate humidities some. A few evening showers/storms in west/central Kansas on the fringe of the higher moisture. 

 

 


 

Sunday, August 17th

Moisture continues to increase across the region. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler than previous days with periods of clouds and scattered showers/storms. However, wetting rains will be very localized. Temperatures will still reside near normal, with highs near 90F. Winds will weaken slightly with afternoon gusts out of the south up to 25mph. 

  

  

Monday, August 18th

Similar conditions to Sunday with a moderated fire weather environment and widely scattered showers and storms. Winds will be more southwest and light. 

 

 

 

Chip (8/11/25)

Next forecast: 8/18/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.














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