7/7/25 Forecast (7/7 - 7/14)
Fuels:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact localized areas of the state each afternoon. However, with the lack of repeated precipitation over the same landscape each day, fuels continue to waver between drying/wetting. Overall, this has sustained fuel moistures across the region and allowed for ERCs to be persistent in the 15-30%-tile range. This will continue to limit fire behavior as a result. Without more prolonged drying and increased wind, fires will remain limited to cured out cool season grasses with suppression successful in greener fuels.
Statewide Preparedness Level: 2
Growing Season Index:
Forecast:
Monday, July 7th
Seasonal temperatures with light southeast winds. Several episodes of thunderstorms possible. An area of isolated storms will develop in the afternoon in the northeast. More widespread storms will develop in NE/CO and move east/southeast in the evening. Wetting rains are expected for most of northwest Kansas this evening.
Tuesday, July 8th
Storms continue across the state and shift more southeasterly into central/eastern Kansas. Heavy rains appear likely where precipitation does occur. Otherwise, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with the widespread cloud cover. Afternoon humidity will be moderated as a result.
Wednesday, July 9th
Much less storm/precipitation coverage than previous days with only a few isolated storms in the west. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer, especially in the southwest where temperatures will approach 100F. Further east, higher moisture will linger with high heat indicies but little fire weather concerns.
Thursday, July 10th
Heat expands further east into central Kansas with only a few widely scattered showers/storms. This drier air combined with a second day of drying will allow for humidity to be lower statewide than previous days, however remain above critical levels. Southerly winds will also increase with some afternoon gusts in west/central Kansas up to 30mph in the afternoon.
Friday, July 11th
A weak cold front will push southeast into Kansas, shifting the corridor of highest temperatures into southern and eastern Kansas. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-to-upper 90s with breezy south/southwest winds up to 30mph here. Humidity will remain moderated however, with lowest values around 30%. A few storms along the front in northern/northeast Kansas during the day, then become more widespread overnight along the front into central/southern Kansas.
Saturday, July 12th
A few lingering storms in southeast Kansas expected. Otherwise, drier with afternoon temperatures several degrees cooler than previous days. Winds will be relatively light with no fire weather concerns.
Sunday, July 13th
Southerly winds increase with temperatures beginning to rebound. Storm coverage will increase in southerly Kansas but remain relatively isolated. No fire weather concerns.
Monday, July 14th
Drier conditions with southerly winds increasing. This will allow temperatures to increase to the upper 90s, much warmer than previous days.
Chip (7/7/25)
Next forecast: 7/14/25
Risk | Humidity | Wind | Other |
---|---|---|---|
Elevated |
Around 20% | Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph |
Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly |
Critical | Around 15% | Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph |
Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely |
Extreme | Around 10% | Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph |
Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely |
Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.
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