7/7/25 Forecast (7/7 - 7/14)

Fuels:

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact localized areas of the state each afternoon. However, with the lack of repeated precipitation over the same landscape each day, fuels continue to waver between drying/wetting. Overall, this has sustained fuel moistures across the region and allowed for ERCs to be persistent in the 15-30%-tile range. This will continue to limit fire behavior as a result. Without more prolonged drying and increased wind, fires will remain limited to cured out cool season grasses with suppression successful in greener fuels. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, July 7th

Seasonal temperatures with light southeast winds. Several episodes of thunderstorms possible. An area of isolated storms will develop in the afternoon in the northeast. More widespread storms will develop in NE/CO and move east/southeast in the evening. Wetting rains are expected for most of northwest Kansas this evening. 

 

 

  

 

Tuesday, July 8th

Storms continue across the state and shift more southeasterly into central/eastern Kansas. Heavy rains appear likely where precipitation does occur. Otherwise, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with the widespread cloud cover. Afternoon humidity will be moderated as a result.  

 

 


 

 

Wednesday, July 9th

Much less storm/precipitation coverage than previous days with only a few isolated storms in the west. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer, especially in the southwest where temperatures will approach 100F. Further east, higher moisture will linger with high heat indicies but little fire weather concerns. 

 

 

  

Thursday, July 10th

Heat expands further east into central Kansas with only a few widely scattered showers/storms. This drier air combined with a second day of drying will allow for humidity to be lower statewide than previous days, however remain above critical levels. Southerly winds will also increase with some afternoon gusts in west/central Kansas up to 30mph in the afternoon. 

 

 


Friday, July 11th

A weak cold front will push southeast into Kansas, shifting the corridor of highest temperatures into southern and eastern Kansas. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-to-upper 90s with breezy south/southwest winds up to 30mph here. Humidity will remain moderated however, with lowest values around 30%. A few storms along the front in northern/northeast Kansas during the day, then become more widespread overnight along the front into central/southern Kansas.

 

 

 


Saturday, July 12th

A few lingering storms in southeast Kansas expected. Otherwise, drier with afternoon temperatures several degrees cooler than previous days. Winds will be relatively light with no fire weather concerns. 

 

 


 

Sunday, July 13th

Southerly winds increase with temperatures beginning to rebound. Storm coverage will increase in southerly Kansas but remain relatively isolated. No fire weather concerns.  

 

  

Monday, July 14th

Drier conditions with southerly winds increasing. This will allow temperatures to increase to the upper 90s, much warmer than previous days. 

 

 

 

Chip (7/7/25)

Next forecast: 7/14/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.













Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

3/13/25 Forecast (3/13 - 3/20)

Image
  Fuels: With significant warm/dry/windy conditions, the landscape continues to rapidly dry. In fact, ERC percentiles statewide have climbed almost 10% since Monday. This trend will develop better alignment with early spring weather conditions for increased/extreme fire behavior, even where recent precipitation has occurred. Southeast Kansas has observed the most recent moisture and most advanced greenup. However, barriers to spread are limited and greenness will have minimal limitations on fire spread. Combined with strong winds, the fire landscape can support large fire activity and with increased timber loading, long duration fires are also possible. Further west, the departure from wetting rain is up to 100+ days for areas of southwest Kansas. With above normal fuel loading, any fire that gets established during increased fire weather conditions could become large and significant, potentially impossible to suppress. Through the period, overnight recoveries are moderate at best ...
Read more

3/10/25 Forecast (3/10 - 3/17)

Image
 Fuels: Substantial warming and drying has been underway for the state. This is curing dead fuels and also encouraging rapid greenup.  Statewide ERC has exceeded the 50th percentile and is forecasted to breech the 60th+ percentile by Tuesday. As a result, fire behavior is expected to dramatically increase. Aggressive fire behavior along with spotting concerns will be highest in the southwest and northeast where highest fuel loading resides. Additionally, longer days are slowly expanding burning windows allowing for improved moisture extinction and drying that can overcome even good overnight recovery. Lastly, GSI increases are also expected. While some localized areas of lower cut/existing vegetation may slow fire spread, this will be limited to the southeast portion of the state and not be enough to dramatically reduce fire behavior/spread.    Weekly Statewide PL: ~3 Onset GSI:   Forecast: Monday, March 10th Critical fire weather for Stanton Co, northeastward ...
Read more

3/17/25 Forecast (3/17 - 3/24)

Image
Fuels:  Significant drying has continued over the last week with only minimal moisture observed, mostly north of I-70 and along the MO border. Central portions of the state have gone about 40+ days without wetting rains while western Kansas has many locations with 100+ days. In these areas, ERCs have continued to trend upward over the period with every district of the state in 70th %-tile or higher outside of the southeast (58th %tile). ERCs are highest in the southwest with an average 85th %tile. With continued warm/dry conditions, these conditions are expected to degrade further into mid-week. As such, the fuel landscape is dominated by cured seasonal vegetation with increased loading, especially in the southwest. This is the area of greatest concern for extreme fire behavior. Further east, it appears that areas of greenup are starting to check up fire behavior with increased GSI exceeding 50% in several locations. Snowfall is expected to slow fire activity/potential for north-ce...
Read more